Luxembourgers' trust in democracy wanes, Merz to become German chancellor, and Ukraine and US strike minerals deal

Here are five things you should know at the end of this week:

• Trust in democracy declines among young Luxembourgers: survey
• Luxembourg's lone veto on EU sanctions against M23 sparks backlash
• Council of State alarmed by draft bill on expanded police powers
• German election winner Merz eyes SPD coalition amid historic far-right gains
• Ukraine, US strike minerals deal despite vague security guarantees from Trump

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1. Trust in democracy declines among young Luxembourgers: survey

© voting candidate campaign in democracy ballot box. Latin mid hand unrecognizable man by  Canva / Alfonso Sangiao

• A recent Polindex survey shows a decline in trust in democracy in Luxembourg, with confidence dropping from over 90% in 2004 to 68% today, though institutions like the European Court of Justice remain highly trusted.

• Young Luxembourgers are less certain about democracy as the best system, prompting Chamber of Deputies President Claude Wiseler to call for further research and action to address public concerns.

• Economic and housing issues are seen as the biggest challenges, while nearly a third of residents report feeling "tired" or "distrustful", with non-Luxembourg residents expressing more negative sentiments.

New insights – The latest Polindex survey highlights a noticeable drop in confidence in democracy among Luxembourg residents, with only 68% expressing trust in the system compared to over 90% in 2004. While the decline follows a broader European trend, trust levels were especially low during major political events such as the referendums in 2005 and 2015.

However, despite this downward trend, institutions like the European Court of Justice, the military, and the Chamber of Deputies continue to be regarded as trustworthy by a significant portion of the population. Non-Luxembourg residents demonstrate greater faith in the government compared to Luxembourg nationals.

Meanwhile, political parties, television, and the press rank among the least trusted entities, reflecting growing skepticism towards traditional media and political structures.

Government response – One of the survey's more concerning findings is that while most young respondents still support democracy, a notable proportion did not fully endorse it as the best political system. This signals a potential generational shift in political attitudes, possibly influenced by rising social and economic pressures.

Claude Wiseler, President of the Chamber of Deputies, described these results as alarming and stressed the need for policymakers to engage more directly with young people's concerns. He also emphasised the importance of further research to better understand these attitudes and to ensure that political institutions remain relevant and responsive to future generations.

Structural concerns – The survey further identifies housing and economic difficulties as the most pressing challenges facing Luxembourg, aligning with broader concerns about affordability and financial stability. Political scientist Philippe Poirier attributes declining trust in democracy to deep-rooted structural factors rather than specific scandals or short-term political controversies, suggesting that many people feel increasingly disconnected from political decision-making.

The study also sheds light on the emotional state of Luxembourg residents, with only a third describing themselves as feeling "well", while 31% reported feeling "tired" and 29% "distrustful". These negative sentiments are even more pronounced among non-Luxembourg residents, with only 23% saying they feel "well", indicating potential disparities in how different groups experience life in the country.

Read also: Over half of Luxembourg private sector workers report psychological distress in 2024

2. Luxembourg's lone veto on EU sanctions against M23 sparks backlash

Luxembourg FM Xavier Bettel attending an EU Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels on 24 February 2025. / © AFP

• Luxembourg was the only EU country to veto sanctions against the Rwanda-backed Congolese militant group M23, drawing criticism from NGOs and speculation over economic interests.

• Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel defended the veto by citing ongoing African diplomatic negotiations, pledging support for sanctions if the situation worsens.

• NGOs and political figures in Luxembourg condemned the decision, questioning potential financial ties between Luxembourg and Rwanda amid the ongoing conflict in Eastern Congo.

Lone veto – The Grand Duchy's decision to oppose an EU resolution targeting M23, a Tutsi-led paramilitary group accused of seizing control over parts of Eastern Congo, has sparked widespread condemnation. While all other EU nations supported the sanctions, Luxembourg's stance has raised concerns among human rights organisations, particularly the Luxembourg Cooperation Circle of NGOs.

Critics argue that by blocking the resolution, Luxembourg has effectively shielded a group accused of fuelling one of the most devastating conflicts in Africa, with thousands killed and millions displaced in recent weeks. The veto has also led to speculation that economic interests – particularly Luxembourg's ties to Rwanda's financial sector and the region's valuable rare earth minerals – may have played a role in the decision.

Sanctions not off the table – In response to the backlash, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel justified the veto by emphasising the importance of ongoing negotiations among African Foreign Ministers. He argued that imposing sanctions at this stage could undermine diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating the violence.

Bettel insisted that Luxembourg remains committed to addressing the crisis and assured that the government would support sanctions if the situation does not improve. However, this explanation has done little to quell criticism, with some arguing that immediate action is necessary given the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Eastern Congo.

Criticism from NGOs and opposition – The Luxembourg Cooperation Circle of NGOs called the veto "shocking" and "unacceptable", accusing Bettel of failing to take a clear stance on the conflict in prior parliamentary discussions. NGO representative Sebastian Weier pointed out that Bettel previously suggested that the Democratic Republic of the Congo shares responsibility for the conflict, a stance that fuelled further criticism.

Meanwhile, opposition politicians, including members of The Left (Déi Lénk) and Pirate Party MP Sven Clement, have raised concerns about Luxembourg's financial ties with Rwanda, questioning whether the veto was influenced by economic interests. Critics thus argue that the country may indirectly benefit from Rwanda's alleged illegal exploitation of the DRC's mineral resources.

Read also – Prime Minister Frieden not previously informed about Council discussions

3. Council of State alarmed by draft bill on expanded police powers

© RTL archive

• The Council of State has raised concerns over a draft bill expanding police powers to remove individuals from public spaces, warning of potential risks to individual rights and freedoms.

• It specifically objects to giving mayors – not police or judges – the power to impose temporary location bans, calling it an overly restrictive measure.

• The draft bill will now be reviewed by the Parliamentary Home Affairs Committee, which has received eight other opinions, including from the public prosecutor and a municipal association.

Concerns raised – The Council of State has voiced significant concerns regarding a proposed law that seeks to expand police authority to remove individuals from public spaces if they are deemed to be causing a disturbance. The primary worry is that the bill could infringe on fundamental rights and freedoms, as it introduces measures that may not offer sufficient legal safeguards for citizens.

The Council highlighted that the law's vague wording and subjective criteria for determining "disturbances" could lead to inconsistent enforcement, raising the risk of arbitrary decisions by police officers.

Provision should be removed – One of the key objections raised by the Council is the provision that would allow mayors, rather than police officers or judges, to impose temporary bans on individuals from certain locations if they repeatedly violate the law. The Council argues that this measure constitutes a significant restriction of fundamental rights, going beyond a simple removal order and resembling a temporary prohibition of residency.

As such, it believes that the provision is too intrusive and should be removed from the bill for now, to prevent potential misuse or legal challenges.

Further opinions – The bill will now move to the Parliamentary Home Affairs Committee for further discussion, where it will be examined alongside eight other opinions from key stakeholders. These include the public prosecutor's office and the Association of Luxembourg Cities and Municipalities (Syvicol), which have also provided feedback on the proposed legislation.

4. German election winner Merz eyes SPD coalition amid historic far-right gains

© AFP

• Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU claimed victory in Germany's election with 28.5%, while the far-right AfD made record gains with over 20%, raising concerns about future governance.

• Merz is pushing for a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) to address immigration, defence spending, and economic stagnation, aiming for an agreement by mid-April.

• German industry and European leaders, including PM Frieden, stress the need for quick coalition-building to counter economic stagnation and reduced US commitment to Europe under Donald Trump.

Scholz toppled – Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the clear winner in Germany's national election, securing 28.5% of the vote, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz' SPD suffered a historic defeat, falling to 16.4%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best-ever result, surpassing 20%, driven by public concerns over immigration and security following recent attacks.

Despite their gains, all mainstream parties have pledged to uphold a "firewall" to keep the AfD out of government. The election results mark a significant shift in Germany's political landscape, reflecting broader European trends of rising right-wing populism and voter dissatisfaction with incumbent governments.

Merz' priorities – With no viable path to governing alone, Merz is prioritising coalition talks with the SPD to form a stable government and implement his agenda, which includes tightening immigration policies, boosting defence spending, and reviving Germany's struggling economy. However, deep policy differences between the two parties, particularly on migration, could complicate negotiations.

The CDU/CSU's call for stricter border controls and asylum restrictions clashes with the SPD's more lenient approach, raising concerns about whether an agreement can be reached swiftly. Merz has set a mid-April deadline for finalising a coalition, stressing that Germany cannot afford prolonged political paralysis as global geopolitical and economic challenges mount.

Challenging conditions – Germany's industrial leaders and European partners are urging Merz to quickly finalise a coalition to restore political and economic stability after years of stagnation under Scholz' fractured government. With Germany facing a manufacturing slowdown, high energy costs, and the threat of US trade tariffs under Donald Trump, business leaders warn that prolonged uncertainty will further weaken investment and growth.

At the same time, Trump's overtures to Russia and wavering commitment to NATO have heightened European security concerns, making defence spending a priority. Merz has pledged to strengthen Europe's military capabilities, but Germany's constitutional debt limits pose a challenge, leaving the new government with difficult financial decisions ahead.

5. Ukraine, US strike minerals deal despite vague security guarantees from Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US President Donald Trump, and France's President Emmanuel Macron pictured in December 2024. / © AFP

• Ukraine and the US are set to sign a minerals deal on Friday, granting Washington preferential access to Ukraine's rare earth resources in hopes of securing future security guarantees, though Trump has refused to commit to them.

• Trump has shifted US policy on Ukraine, seeking rapprochement with Russia, sidelining European allies, and negotiating an end to the war while refusing to back Kyiv’s NATO aspirations or provide clear security commitments.

• European leaders, including Macron and Starmer, have urged Trump to maintain US support for Ukraine, but he remains noncommittal, instead focusing on economic gains and potential peace talks with Russia.

Rare minerals deal – After weeks of tense negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is travelling to Washington to finalise the agreement, which will allow the US to jointly develop Ukraine's valuable mineral deposits, including those crucial for aerospace and electric vehicle industries. The deal is seen as a compromise after Trump initially demanded $500 billion worth of resources as repayment for past US aid, a figure that was later dropped.

While Kyiv hopes the agreement will strengthen US-Ukraine relations and pave the way for security assurances, Trump has made no concrete commitments, instead emphasising that the deal is about recouping US investment. The final agreement reportedly includes vague language about investing in a "stable and prosperous sovereign Ukraine" without firm security guarantees, leaving Ukraine uncertain about its long-term protection against Russian aggression.

Policy shift – Since taking office last month, Trump has drastically altered the US stance on Ukraine, prioritising direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over traditional Western alliances. His administration has pursued a peace deal that excludes Kyiv from key discussions, aligning more closely with Moscow's interests while casting doubt on America's long-term support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.

He has dismissed Ukraine's NATO ambitions, claiming they were a primary cause of the war, and has criticised previous US administrations for their financial and military backing of Kyiv. Trump's rhetoric initially alienated Zelensky, whom he labelled a "dictator", though he later walked back the remark. His pivot toward Russia has caused alarm among European allies, who now fear that Ukraine will be forced into a settlement that benefits Moscow without solid US security assurances.

European concerns – French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer have both visited Washington in recent days, pressing Trump to uphold US commitments to Ukraine and warning against a peace deal that "rewards the aggressor". Macron emphasised that any settlement must not come at the cost of Ukraine's sovereignty, while Starmer proposed British and French peacekeepers to help enforce a post-war agreement – but only if the US provides strategic backing.

Despite their efforts, Trump has remained vague, refusing to guarantee any military or intelligence support while instead promoting the minerals deal as a means for Ukraine to "repay" America. His focus has been on economic recovery rather than military commitments, and while he insists progress is being made toward a peace deal, he has not outlined how Ukraine's security will be ensured in the long run. With US-Russia talks continuing behind closed doors, concerns are growing that Trump may strike a deal that forces Kyiv into painful concessions without Western backing.

The best of... 📚

• Business & Tech – Shares of the US electric vehicle pioneer Tesla plunged Tuesday, leaving its market value below $1 trillion as investors digested disappointing European sales and chief executive Elon Musk's aggressive foray into politics.
  
  
• Science & Environment – A US company is aiming for its second lunar touchdown after a lander carrying a suite of unique experiments successfully launched aboard a SpaceX rocket on Wednesday.
  
  
• Entertainment – Pop star Katy Perry is set to "shoot across the sky" this spring when she lifts off as part of a six-member, all-female crew on Blue Origin's next space flight, the company announced Thursday.
  
  
• Sport – Barcelona will host the start of the Tour de France in 2026 with three days of racing unveiled by organisers and local officials on Tuesday showing off the Catalan region at its best.

And in case you missed it... ⚠️

• Tech – Google is making inroads in Luxembourg with the planned opening of a new office and a $500,000 commitment to support cybersecurity programmes at the University of Luxembourg.
  
  
• Mobility – Starting Sunday, 2 March, the tram will introduce two new stops and establish a direct connection to Findel Airport.
  
  
• Foreign policy – At the 58th Human Rights Council session in Geneva, PM Luc Frieden reaffirmed Luxembourg's unwavering commitment to human rights, condemning violations by Russia and the forced displacement in Gaza while refraining from explicit criticism of US policies.
  
  
• Law enforcement – A staggering 17.9% of traffic fines issued in Luxembourg over the last five years have gone unpaid, amounting to over €26.5 million lost to the government.

Your Weekly Recap is published every Friday at noon. Read earlier versions.