Despite an anxiety-filled social media landscape, virologists and epidemiologists broadly agree that neither the hantavirus in general, nor the more dangerous Andean variant specifically, has the potential to trigger a global pandemic. Reports of isolated suspected cases appearing around the world do not change that assessment, and the Luxembourg Health Inspectorate is closely monitoring developments while giving the all-clear.
Epidemiologist Joël Mossong explained the current situation: "We are evidently at the beginning of the outbreak. Given the long incubation period, we need to wait and see whether one or two cases emerge among close contacts. But at this stage, we are working on the assumption that it is limited to a local outbreak on a single ship."
Mossong was also keen to dispel any comparison between the Andean variant and Covid-19. The two viruses function differently and attack the human body in differing ways. The mortality rate of the Andes virus is notably high at around 30%, compared to the estimated 1% to 2% for Covid-19 before vaccination. However, the concentration of the virus in respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes is considerably lower than that of Covid-19, making transmission far more difficult.
Science has direct experience with this. A well-documented local outbreak in Argentina some years ago provided valuable insight: "Infections occurred between people who had very close contact, people living together, eating together, spending prolonged time with one another, longer contact with each other. There is no evidence that transmission occurred through brief contact", Mossong said.
The World Health Organization reinforced this position on Friday afternoon. Even individuals who had relatively close contact with infected passengers aboard the ship, including a Dutch flight attendant who had cared for a passenger who later died, subsequently tested negative. WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier drew a clear conclusion: "That should convince almost everyone that this is a dangerous virus for those who become infected with it, but that the risk to the general population remains very low."
For people in Luxembourg, no particular measures are necessary, Mossong confirmed. "No, I don't think so. No measures regarding travel behaviour are being planned either," he said.
