The latest 'Sunday Question' poll, carried out by Ilres on behalf of RTL and Luxemburger Wort, shows that people's satisfaction with the Frieden administration has suffered in the six months since the CSV-DP coalition has taken office.

When compared to the October 2023 election results, both the Christian Social People's Party (CSV) and the Democratic Party (DP) would each lose one seat in the Chamber.

Seemingly in free fall is the Pirate Party, currently represented by two MPs in parliament after Ben Polidori switched to the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) in the midst of internal strife. However, they would in fact go down to no parliamentary representation whatsoever if another election were to be held on Sunday, according to the new poll.

Winners, at least according to those surveyed, are the LSAP, The Greens, and the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR), who all recorded gains compared to their 2023 election results.

RTL

© SIP / Emmanuel Claude

A sinking ship

It appears that the past months of upheaval in the Pirate Party have not gone unnoticed with voters: all three of the seats won in October would be lost, if people headed to the polls on Sunday. According to Ilres spokesperson Manon Breden, the sobering results show that people have "lost their trust in the party".

Overall, it is the lowest score that the Pirates have received in an Ilres poll since 2018.

When compared to recent elections, and previous polls, the Pirates would drop from 11% in November 2021 to just 3.2% now.

Coalition deemed unsatisfactory

But the Pirates are not the only party feeling voters' ire. The CSV would lose around 1% of votes, but would remain the strongest party with around 29%. Their coalition partners, the DP, would also lose a marginal amount of votes - however, it would be enough to remove a seat in the Chamber from each of the ruling parties, bringing the CSV to 20 MPs, and 13 for the DP.

Manon Breden says:

"This could be a message that some voters are not wholly satisfied with what the government has delivered to date. Could it be a sign they expected more from the coalition?"

Opposition gains in popularity

With the exception of the Pirate Party, the other opposition parties have grown in popularity. If elections were held next Sunday, the Greens would win two seats, restoring their fractional strength lost in the last election. But Breden seeks to contextualise the survey findings:

"When looking at percentages this would still be the Greens' worst result in years, with the exception of the last parliamentary election, even if they gain seats."

The socialists would win 1.8% of votes, like the Greens, bringing them to 20% overall.

"The LSAP would win 13 seats, the same number as the DP. In percentage terms, they would even be slightly stronger than the DP are currently."

The Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) would also win a percentage point, bringing them to 10.7% of votes. This would represent six seats in the Chamber, an increase of one from their current standings, delivering the party's best results since winter 2021. In 1999, the ADR had seven representatives in the Chamber of Deputies, fuelled by their stance on pensions at the time. These days, the party champions other topics, following international trends.

The Left (déi Lénk) would remain in a stable position with their votes, maintaining two seats.

Survey details

1,872 eligible voters were contacted over the phone and online for this survey, carried out between 23-30 September 2024. 1,147 interviews were conducted by telephone, 297 of which were to landlines and 850 to mobile numbers. 725 interviews were conducted online.

For further details, please visit Alia.lu