After polling all four constituencies, the DP and LSAP parties emerge as the biggest losers while CSV and ADR gain support in comparison to 2013.

Comparing the allocation of seats from 2013 to June 2018, the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) fell under 10 seats in the Chamber of Deputies for the first time in their history. According to recent polling, the LSAP would lose four seats, which would leave them with only nine MPs in parliament. 30 years ago, in 1989, the LSAP still reached 18 seats.

The other big loser throughout the country seems to be the Democratic Party. They stand to lose three seats, which would leave them with a total of 10 MPs in the Chamber of Deputies.

The Christian Socialist Party CSV is set to profit from the LSAP and DP's losses and could gain up to three seats. They would then be represented by 26 members of parliament. The Alternative Democratic Reform Party ADR is expected to gain around two seats, which would bring them up to 5 MPs in the Chamber of Deputies. This would also mean that they could re-gain the parliamentary fraction status they lost due to low numbers back in 2009. The Left is also expected to gain a seat, which would bring them up to three MPs.

According to these recent polling numbers, the current coalition government of the DP, the LSAP and the Greens would only achieve a grand total of 26 seats in parliament, just as many as the opposition party CSV is expected to achieve on its own. These numbers seem to indicate that the Gambia coalition will be a thing of the past after the October elections.

The southern constituency

The mood surrounding the upcoming election has shifted from 2013, according to the results obtained by polling 1,411 people in Luxembourg.

In the south, a traditionally socialist constituency, as well as overall, the LSAP seems to be struggling. They lose around 5.3% and only get to a grand total of 19.9%. The Democratic party is set to lose around 2.2 points in the south, while the Greens, the CSV, the Left and the ADR are expected to improve from 2013.

The south has 23 seats in the Chamber and needs 4.3% of votes to get a seat. As already predicted in a December poll, the LSAP is again expected to lose two seats, while the DP would drop one seat from three to two.

The CSV, the Greens and the Left emerge as clear winner in the south, each gaining one seat.

A long-standing negative trend for the LSAP

The Politmonitor measures long-term trends and the numbers throughout Luxembourg are not looking good for the LSAP, despite positive results for several LSAP politicians such as Asselborn, Di Bartolomeo, Kersch, Closener and Schmit.

According to the most recent polling results, the LSAP would only make it to nine seats overall, while the DP would lose three seats. Nationally, the Greens would be up by one seat, the CSV would gain three, the ADR two and the Left would take one additional seat in parliament.

Four choices for the strongest party CSV

Reaching 26 seats and thus rivalling the number of seats taken by the current coalition government, the CSV is expected to become the single strongest party. This would leave them with foru coalition options:

A CSV-ADR coalition would bring them to 31 seats and a coalition with the Greens would result in 33 coalition seats - a number the CSV deemed to low to form a government back in 2013. Their strongest option would be a coalition with the Democratic party. Here, a coalition government could reach 36 seats, compared to 35 seats when going for a CSV-LSAP coalition.

However, in light of the major overall losses expected for the LSAP party, this might be to big a compromise to make for the CSV.

In any case, on clear trend has become apparent in the recent Politmonitor: As in many other countries, political perties in Luxembourg are also drifting further apart.

Methodology

For the Politmonitor series, TNS-Ilres has been polling a total of 3,521 people eligible to vote over six months, either on the phone or online. The research panel asked these people how they would vote if elections were to occur the next Sunday. As a result, the polls show long-term voting trends as opposed to a spontaneous development.

For detailed Politmonitor results, check oou the PDF files in the links box below.