If elections were held today, The CSV would drop in its percentage but still remain the most popular party in the northern constituency with five seats.

This is according to a poll conducted by TNS Ilres alongside RTL and the Lëtzebuerger Wort. In the poll , which simulates an election today in June, the Democratic Party would win two seats and the LSAP and the Greens would each get one.

According to the 647 people polled, the CSV would remain the strongest party in the north with 37.1% of the vote. The DP would lose 3.4 percentage points compared to October 2013.

The comparison of current trends with the elections in October 2013 also shows that the LSAP would lose 2.9 percentage points. The two winners are, as shown, the CSV, which would gain 3.4 percentage points and déi Lénk , who would gain 3.2 percentage points.

A comparison between June 2018 and October 2013.


TNS-Ilres's Luc Biever explained that these results are difficult to interpret, but analysts can see that voters would move from the socialist LSAP party to déi Lénk, which shows a move further left. As for the DP's lost votes, those would go to the CSV.

As for how the northern constituency is made up, there are nine seats and each potential MP must get at least 11% of votes. The current political inclination shows that the LSAP would lose their second seat and only have one, just like the Greens.

Variation compared to December 2017.

The DP would keep its two seats. There is also good news for the Democratic Party if you look at the comparison between now and December 2017, as the DP has gained 2.6%. In this poll, it seems that the CSV is the biggest loser with a drop of 4.7 percentage points, whereas the LSAP seems to be stagnating.

Methodology

For the Politmonitor series, TNS-Ilres has been polling a total of 3,521 people eligible to vote over six months, either on the phone or online. The research panel asked these people how they would vote if elections were to occur the next Sunday. As a result, the polls show long-term voting trends as opposed to a spontaneous development.