According to a new poll by TNS-Ilres in their Politmonitor series, both the CSV and ADR parties will make gains in the elections to the detriment of LSAP and the centre-right Democratic Party.

The poll, which judges the political inclinations of the population if elections were to occur in June, has examined the central constituency. Following how people would vote in June, the poll shows that there are two losers compared to 2013 and one clear winner. The socialist worker LSAP and centre-right DP will have lost support compared to 2013, and nationalist party ADR has gained support in terms of the percentage of votes. Both LSAP and DP would lose a seat each.

The Sunday poll, which is in collaboration with RTL and the Lëtzebuerger Wort newspaper, also shows comparisons with December 2017. Here, the findings seem rather stable for the Democratic Party and LSAP. The DP would have a gain of 0.1%and LSAP would have dropped by 0.7%. However, these variations belong to an error rate and are not being considered.

TNS-Ilres's Luc Biever points out how this comparison is useful for looking at the CSV and ADR, where the variations are larger. The Christian social people's party (CSV)'s amount of voter support will have dropped by 3.6%, whereas ADR has had a rise by 3.3%.

December 2017 and June 2018 comparison.

987 central constituents were polled in June. The findings are decidedly different to the research panel's polls in the northern constituency. The DP would lose 4.4% of votes, LSAP would lose 2.9% of votes and ADR would win 3.6%. This translates to the DP and LSAP losing one seat each.

Comparison between the election of October 2013 and June 2018.

There are 21 seats up for election in the central constituency and the minimum requirement of votes for a seat is 4.7%. Two of the governing parties would lose out in this situation to the advantage of the ADR and CSV.

The growing support for the ADR shows that Luxembourg is also participating in the European-wide trend of increased support for right of centre populist parties.