According to the latest inflation forecasts from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC), consumers could face a substantial surge in gas and electricity prices in 2025.

STATEC predicts a rise of 17% in gas prices and a staggering 60% increase in electricity prices by the next year. This projection is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, which have driven up oil prices and are expected to contribute to an inflation rate of 2.3% this year. Additionally, the anticipated end of energy price caps at the turn of 2025 is expected to further increase gas and electricity prices, potentially leading to an inflation rate of 3.1%.

In 2023, the gas price cap cost the government €202.5 million and the measure to stabilise electricity prices €108.5 million. In 2024, an additional €65 million for gas and €224.5 million for electricity may be required. This scenario suggests a considerable escalation in energy costs by 2025.

However, STATEC advises caution, presenting two scenarios for consideration. The high scenario assumes substantial increases in gas (+34%), electricity (+93%), and Brent crude oil (+18%) prices by 2025, while the low scenario projects more moderate hikes in gas (+11%) and electricity (+48%) prices, along with a decline in Brent crude oil (-25%) prices.

Regardless of the scenario, these escalating costs are expected to trigger wage indexation. In the low scenario, a single indexation is anticipated in the 2nd quarter of 2025, whereas the high scenario foresees three indexations, with the first occurring in the 3rd quarter of 2024, followed by two additional indexations in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025.