Luxembourg's population would be a third smaller and its workforce drastically reduced without the contribution of migrants over the past four decades, a new STATEC report reveals.

A new study from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC) has quantified the profound demographic impact of immigration, finding that Luxembourg's working-age population would be more than halved without it.

According to STATEC's 2025 "Work and Social Cohesion" report, which modeled a no-migration scenario since 1981, the country's total population would have fallen to 430,000 by the start of 2025 – a 36.9% decrease from the expected 682,000. The most dramatic effect would have been on the core workforce. The simulation revealed that the number of people aged 20 to 64 would have plummeted by 51.7%, dropping from 435,000 to just 210,000.

The report highlights that immigration is crucial for counteracting population aging. In the simulated scenario, the number of residents over 65 decreased by only 4.3%, underscoring that new arrivals are predominantly of working age. This trend is reflected in 2024 migration figures, which show that nearly 78% of immigrants and 80% of emigrants were between 20 and 64 years old. In contrast, individuals over 64 represented just 2.3% of arrivals and 6% of departures.

Consequently, the demographic balance would have shifted significantly. Without migration, the old-age dependency ratio – the number of elderly people per 100 workers – would have reached 42%, nearly double the current level of 22%.

These demographic shifts are reflected in the population's composition. Foreign nationals now constitute 47% of residents, a substantial increase from 13% in 1961. On average, the foreign population is younger. For instance, the average age of foreign women is 38.9, compared to 42.2 for Luxembourgish women, while foreign men average 38.6 years, compared to 40 for Luxembourgish men.

However, the STATEC report also notes that the foreign population itself is aging. The proportion of foreign nationals over 65 has risen from 7.9% in 1981 to 31.4% in 2025.

STATEC concludes that while immigration remains an essential lever for mitigating the effects of an aging population, it is not a complete solution on its own. The institute suggests that immigration will be insufficient to fully offset the broader structural demographic changes underway in the country.