Figures from the German ifo Institute reveal that a hard Brexit would have a stronger impact on Luxembourg and Ireland's prosperity levels than in the United Kingdom.
According to research undertaken by economist Marina Steiniger at the ifo Institute, the Irish economy would be hit the hardest by a hard Brexit. The researcher's figures estimate that prosperity levels would fall by 8.16% in Ireland, with Luxembourg next in line in being most impacted by a no-deal Brexit. Luxembourg's prosperity levels would drop by 5.23%, although the British economy itself would only face a drop of 2.76%. The main cause behind Luxembourg's higher losses, according to the paper, is its strong links with the United Kingdom's financial services industry and its small size. Luxembourg shares the latter with both Ireland and Malta, another EU country set to be detrimentally affected by a hard Brexit, and all three countries have close trade ties with the UK.
Steiniger, who co-authored the paper with Jasmin Groeschl and Gabriel Felbermayr, highlighted that both shifting exchange rates and uncertainties for investors would contribute towards a negative impact of a no-deal Brexit. As the researcher explained, "a free trade agreement would definitely soften the blow." Nevertheless, the negative impact of a hard Brexit would be limited to fellow European countries. Several countries look to benefit from a hard Brexit, notably Taiwan (+0.13%), China (+0.05%), India (0.02%), and Russia (0.01%).