The Red Lions on the verge of history – how can they qualify?

Back then, Denmark prevented the Grand Duchy from making history. Who will be the opponents this time around?

Ever since the first phase of the Euro 2024 qualification campaign came to an end last November, Luc Holtz's men have known what they have to do to reach the tournament in Germany this summer.

They first have to beat Georgia away this afternoon, before hosting the winner of Greece vs Kazakhstan at the Stade de Luxembourg in the play-off final.

The draw was made back in November and given the hype Luxembourgish football has generated lately, most fans will find little surprise about which countries this article focuses on.

Nevertheless, stats are not all there is to football. To educate ourselves on Luxembourg's upcoming opponents, the wisest way to go is to ask the people following those countries on a daily basis, with the knowledge to see behind the scenes and tell stories you will not find elsewhere.

Georgia, the first obstacle

While everyone would ideally plan with two competitive games to play in the next week, it's impossible to ignore the fact that a defeat in Tbilisi could mark the end of the road for the Rout Léiwen.

One of the toughest away days possible, a trip to the Caucasus will be exhausting both physically and financially for the travelling fans, who will be vastly outnumbered by a ferocious Georgian crowd. Just like for Luxembourg, hopes are higher than the expectations in Georgia.

"Supporters are hopeful to qualify, but everyone understands that it's a tough task against every single opposition", says Luka Lagvilava, an avid Dinamo Tbilisi fan who also covers his national team on X (formerly Twitter), under the handle @GeorgianFooty.

Having been eliminated at the same hurdle in 2020, Luka emphasises the importance of improving on that result, which would be significant for the whole country. "It stands as a goal yet to be achieved and despite all the success we had in other sports, qualifying for the EURO will certainly overshadow every one of them."

Recent experiences of a play-off environment is definitely one of the areas where they have the upper hand on Luxembourg, who had not participated at this stage for 60 years and have never even been involved in a penalty shootout.

However, most of Georgia's successes across the past few years came down to one man: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who will miss the Luxembourg clash through suspension. According to Lagvilava, the federation committed a major mistake by misinterpreting the rules of the competition, believing that the yellow cards the world class winger had accumulated would not carry through to the play-offs.

"There are a few other players who aren't quite match fit like Giorgi Kochorashvili from Levante UD who's been a breath of fresh air in our struggling midfield", Luka adds. "Key players like Budu Zivzivadze (Karlsruher SC) and Giorgi Chakvetadze (Watford) have also picked up minor injuries prior the call up, but they're likely to make the squad for the game."

When the conversation turns to the Luxembourgish national team, Luka makes the same point we have heard from other foreign experts in recent years. "No one underestimates Luxembourg, especially after the solid qualifying campaign they had."

"Obviously there [have] been times when the Luxembourgish Team was viewed as a minnow squad back in the day, but the development they had and a number of very solid, proven players around Europe certainly changed that perception."

For now, fans in Luxembourg tend to concentrate on these 90 minutes alone, without looking past it to a potential final to be played, and rightly so. Georgia are extremely dangerous in the attack, playing with a 3-at-the-back system that relies on direct, fast attacks and a brand of attractive attacking football.

Just how much its efficiency will drop without the biggest star in the team in Kvaratskhelia is a question we cannot answer with full certainty, but Luxembourg are not considered the favourites either way.

An upset might be on the cards – but Georgia are a team who had nearly been there before, and have surely learnt from the mistakes that held them back that time around. Time for all of Luxembourg's squad to switch into battle mode.

The other pairing

Shortly after Georgia vs Luxembourg finishes on Thursday evening, Greece vs Kazakhstan will kick off on the same day. Although we don't yet know if that result will impact Luxembourg's chances of qualifying in any way, it is wise to keep half an eye on the proceedings in Athens, to have a better outlook of both potential opponents.

Here, we have two opponents that are not especially prepared to face Luxembourg. Obviously, the squad and the coaching staff will have gone through plenty of video analysis and background check by the time the day of the final comes on 26 March. The public expectation, though, is for both countries to try and make it through the first round – to tee up a game against Georgia.

"The Luxembourg football project is still kind of unknown here" was the answer I received from Jason Therios about the chances from a Greek perspective. Jason is a football journalist at Gazzetta.gr, the biggest sports website in Greece. He, too, has been watching football since he was a kid, and like many, remembers the days of Luxembourg being punching bags in Europe.

"Not many people feel that the other three teams are better than Greece so it would come as a shock if Greece miss out. Out of Luxembourg and Georgia, I think most people would expect Georgia to reach the final."

Greece's football history is nothing like the other participants’ in the play-off round. European Championship winners in 2004, they reached the knockout stages of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, and after a ten-year hiatus, expectations are rising again. "We've not been at a major tournament since then, so many fans hope that it's finally time for Greece to reach the heights of our own 'Golden Decade'."

Tempering expectations is not easy with a fanbase known for being passionate about the sport. "As we say here, people live and breathe for football", says Jason about Greek fan habits. "I think everyone is optimistic – maybe a little too much."

Given that their tie against Kazakhstan is widely considered a more one-sided one than Georgia vs Luxembourg, the Greeks sure have reason to be confident about their ability to make it.

The only country whose fans are treating qualification as a reasonable and rightful demand are just happening to be facing the biggest surprise packages of 2023.

When asking Ruslan Medelbek, a sports reporter who has worked at three Olympic games and writes for RFERL Kazakh Service, about the atmosphere around the Kazakh team these days, his answer falls in line with the general perception about the country's rise. "There is a big hope for Kazakh fans. But everyone knows that Greece is the favourite in this match, and it will be very tough since Greece is higher in the FIFA Ranking, and they play at home."

With the passion for football in Kazakhstan is slowly increasing with a new generation of talented players breaking into the national team, attendance numbers are also booming. "The Kazakh team won its group (Slovakia. Azerbaijan, Belarus) at Nations League-2022/23 – League C and [reached] Group B", explains Ruslan when talking about the beginning of the most successful period in Kazakh football history.

"So, it was an impressive achievement for the team. Then at the Euro 2024 qualifying tournament, the team won [against] Denmark and Finland. And more fans started to support the national team. There was a ticket shortage at Astana Arena stadium where the capacity is 30,000. People could not get a ticket to matches. When the Kazakhstan team lost at the last match of qualification to Slovenia, and could not qualify directly for Euro-2024, fans did not criticise the team, saying being too close to the Euro is a big result for Kazakh football."

Having only joined UEFA in 2002, the Eastern country did indeed find wins hard to come by against European opponents. Now that they have bucked that trend, supporters have certainly started to believe that they belong at this level. However, realistically thinking, it might not be as sustainable an improvement as, let's say, that of Luxembourg.

"There is a doubt that maybe it is a one-time achievement", according to Ruslan. "If Kazakhstan qualify for Euro 2024, it will be a historical moment for Kazakhstan and for the whole Central Asia, and Kyrgyz, Tajik fans also will support the Kazakh team. If the Kazakh team will not qualify to Euro-2024, they have to prove [themselves] at Nations League-2024/25 and then at the next qualification tournaments."

While Kazakh players are starting to appear in stronger leagues across the continent (Türkiye being especially popular), their squad depth looks way inferior when compared to Greece. The Mediterranean country boasts household names such as Liverpool left-back Kostas Tsimikas, Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos or famous Uruguayan manager Gus Poyet, who are all both more experienced and arguably more capable technically than the young Central Asian team.

One of the two national teams will visit the Luxembourgish capital on 26 March, but whether it is for a final to be played or a mere friendly between the two semi-final losers is the biggest question.

Whichever scenario plays out, the ultras from the Grand Duchy are prepared to give the Red Lions the perfect backing they need – and deserve – after a strong run of performances that made a country dream about a German vacation come June.

The Georgia game will be played at the Boris Paichadze Arena in Tbilisi from 18:00 on Thursday, 21 March, while the second meeting (either a final or a friendly) will take place on Tuesday, 26 March with the same kick-off time.