Tonight is the final stage in an unprecedented election campaign as the last votes for Biden and Trump are cast and the initial results begin to roll in.
At the time of writing, Joe Biden is the firm favourite in most national polls, and with bookmakers. In that regard, Trump is once again the underdog, as he was in the lead-up to his 2016 victory against Hillary Clinton. There isn’t complete agreement between bookmarkers and polls, however - one example comes from the key state of Florida, where polls favour Biden, but bookies have their money on Trump.
As we announced last week, your friendly local journos at RTL Today will be right here with you throughout this hotly contested election night, providing the latest updates along with our own takes and, we hope, a whole lot of your voices as well. You can find our live ticker right here, along with all the info you need on how to get in touch with us throughout the day and night.
Now, let’s look at what to expect, and when.
To start with the million-dollar question, as the Americans might say: when will we know who won?
This is a bit difficult to say, unfortunately. If Biden wins in a landslide tonight, we may a actually have a result fairly quickly - one declared by US media, that is. A similar victory in Trump’s favour is, according to the latest polls, far less likely.
What may also happen is that we won’t have a result tomorrow, in the event that the vote is closer. The election may come down to mail-in ballots in a number of swing states, which may take days or weeks to tally up. All this could well result in a series of lawsuits in a repeat of the 2000 election, when the Supreme Court handed the presidency to George Bush.
This will only happen if Trump can force a close election - and we’ll be able to provide more clarity on this as the night progresses.
As the name would suggest, a swing state is one that can reasonably be won by either of the two main political parties - Trump’s Republicans, or Biden’s Democrats.
In particularly competitive elections such as these, swing states become particularly important due to the archaic system of the Electoral College - more on that here - and are often subject to increased attention from the candidates.
These are contrasted by safe states, which either of the two parties can quite safely assume they will win - think California for the Democrats, or Alabama for the Republicans.
The swing states which decided the 2016 election were Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan, all of which Donald Trump won by minuscule margins to hand him the presidency. The most important state in this election is probably Pennsylvania - but there, as well as in Michigan and Wisconsin, ballots can only begin to be counted on election day itself, meaning results may only arrive in a few days’ time.
Other states to keep an eye on include Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, all of which traditionally lean Republican but appear up for grabs in this election.
Interestingly, Texas has traditionally been a safe state for the Republicans, but is considered a swing state this year: a CNN poll found Trump the favourite at just 48% to Biden’s 46%, while YouGov has Trump on 49%, and Biden at 47%. In short: it could go either way.
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a huge increase in the number of early/postal votes cast in this election. The 2016 presidential elections saw 47 million early votes, which has literally doubled this year to some 94 million votes. To put that into perspective, 138.9 million votes were cast in 2016. This means that 34% of votes were cast early; if we assume an equal number of total votes this year, that figure has risen to 68% of votes.
History suggests that Democrats tend to use postal votes more than Republicans, a fact that has led President Donald Trump to suggest that they are particularly prone to fraud. He has also argued that no votes received after polling closes should be counted, even if they were mailed before the deadline; this is an issue that may lead to court battles in key states.
It’s not just Trump and Biden on the ballot tonight.
As usual, the full House of Representatives is up for re-election, alongside one third of the Senate.
The House will almost certainly remain in Democratic hands, but the Senate is a toss-up.
We’ll be keeping an eye on the most important races throughout the night: in Colorado and Arizona, where Democrats are heavily favoured to oust Republican incumbents; in Alabama, where a Democratic seat is likely to be recovered by the Republicans; and in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa, all of which are toss-ups.
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take the chamber - although only three if they also win the presidency.
The first polls are set to close around 1am Luxembourg time - these include states such as South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and Georgia. Early projections may arrive immediately if ballots have been counted quickly, and if Biden has a lead in Georgia, he’s probably going to win the election.
Half an hour later, at 01.30am polling stations will be closing their doors in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana - all solid Trump states - as well as North Carolina. An early Biden victory there would make it all but impossible for Trump to win re-election, while there is also a key Senate race to look out for.
At 2am we will see polls closing in Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee - all of which will be won by Donald Trump. A large number of safe Democratic states will also start to report results, namely Connecticut, Delaware, and Illinois, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Washington DC, and Maine.
The most important states closing at 2am, however, are Florida and Pennsylvania. Both are leaning Biden at the moment, but remain up for grabs. The latter is a clear must-win for Democratic hopeful Biden, but as we have already seen, probably will not report a result tonight.
Florida is the most important state tonight, as postal votes there have been counted weeks ahead of election night, meaning results should be available soon after polls close. A Biden victory, and it’s almost certainly all over for Donald Trump.
At 2.30am we’ll see the closure of polling in Arkansas, the home state of Bill Clinton but a safe bet for the Republicans.
As we hit 3am polls will close in Kansas, Louisiana, South and North Dakota, and Wyoming - these are Trump states. Nebraska is also closing, and leaning Trump. Biden is also set to take a handful of the states closing at this hour, including New Mexico, New York, Minnesota and Colorado.
Michigan and Wisconsin also wrap up voting at this time, but their results are not to be expected tonight.
The ones to keep an eye on here are Texas and Arizona, both of which may release initial projections. Once again, if Biden takes either, he will be the next President of the United States.
4am sees polls closing in the swing state of Iowa, where a vitally important Senate race is also taking place. Voting will also wrap up in Trump-leaning, Mormon-heavy Utah, Idaho and Montana (Trump states), and reliably Democratic California, Oregon, Washington and Nevada.
It’s at this point that we can traditionally expect US networks to start calling the final result, though in this election it’s far from certain that this will happen.
Hawaii will close its polls at 5am, and is a shoe-in for Biden.
Alaska follows suit an hour later, at 6am, and is set to go to Trump.
With that, the polling is over and we’re left waiting for the final count.
Win the vote but lose the election? Behold the Electoral College
