Although the Greens would gain a seat according to the survey, the government would lose their overall majority. The ADR would gain two seats, increasing their strength in the Chamber to six seats. Such are the conclusions drawn by the poll, conducted by TNS-Ilres on behalf of RTL and the Luxembourg Wort. The survey is not a prognosis, but paints a picture of the national electorate.

1,859 people were polled across the four electoral districts. The results were then skewed to cover the nation as a whole. The questionnaire also covered panachage, which has a significant effect on voting results in the Grand Duchy.

If a vote had taken place on Sunday, the CSV party would gain a small amount of votes in terms of overall percentages, reaching 30.1%. In real terms, however, they would lose a seat, dropping to 20 seats overall. Even the introduction of new party leader Frank Engel has not helped the main opposition party.

The Greens would gain a seat in the Chamber, as well as 0.8% in points. Luc Biever, director of TNS-Ilres, said this could be attributed to the ongoing climate discussions in the government, usually associated with the Green party. Controversies such as that of former Differdange mayor Roberto Traversini did not seem to have impacted the public feeling towards the party.

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The poll results were less pleasing for the socialists, who would lose a seat, as would the DP. The LSAP would be left with 9 seats, the Democratic Party with 11.

A coalition between two parties would be the only solution possible for the results of such a vote, namely a CSV-DP coalition. Both parties together would gain the same number of seats as the current ruling coalition with 31 seats.

Déi Lénk and the Pirate Party would keep their two seats according to the poll results.

Poll explanation

This poll is markedly different from the last, which took place in June 2018. This time, the results were calculated for the whole country, not the individual electoral districts. Another difference is the possibility for responses to use panachage, and give multiple answers to the questions.

These differences make it tricky to compare the two polls without using the results of October 2018's vote. Rather than a prognosis, the poll offers a portrait of voting intentions across the country.

The 1,859 participants were contacted between 14 and 23 November.