If elections were held this Sunday, a month earlier than the actual vote, the LSAP would gain several seats in parliament, the CSV would remain the most important party and the Pirates would more than double in size. Xavier Bettel would remain voters' favourite prime minister.
With the electoral programmes published, candidates refreshed after the Schueberfouer rides and posters now up in streets and towns around the country, the campaign for the legislative elections on 8 October officially kicked off on Monday. The perfect opportunity to find out how Luxembourg voters would vote if they had to go to polls this Sunday.
According to the new Sunday poll (Sonndesfro) carried out by Ilres for RTL and Luxemburger Wort, the CSV would remain the strongest party in the Chamber with a total of 19 deputies, two less than is currently the case. An end to the "desert crossing" for the Christian-Social Party, given they barely received 23.3% of the vote in December's poll, or 15 seats in parliament.
The big winner of the elections would be the LSAP of Paulette Lenert, current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Health. The Socialists would have 13 seats in parliament - three more than five years ago. A good score that would surely shake talks up and increase leverage.
Starting in the tripartite government coalition: The LSAP, the DP and the Greens would still have a majority of 31 seats, but the distribution of power would be very different compared to the start of the legislature. The Socialists would be the strongest, Xavier Bettel's DP reduced (11 seats instead of 12 today) and the Greens would lose 2 seats (down from 9).
Another surprise would come from the Pirates, who would take five seats in parliament, three more than in 2018. This would make it a 'fraction' in parliament. The Pirates are definitely on the rise, and this may be in part thanks to their successful results in several municipalities in June during the municipal elections.
After the cacophonous departure of Roy Reding, the ADR would achieve its worst score, resulting in three seats. The Left would remain at two seats.
Various coalitions possible
This new poll really shakes up the elections one month before Luxembourg voters head to the stations. As a result, several possible coalitions could form.
The current government coalition DP-LSAP-the Greens is said to retain its narrow majority with 31 seats out of the 60 in parliament. After ten years in government and no additional seats, the question of voter fatigue inevitably arises - only 8% of voters questioned would like to see this three-party coalition renewed.
On the other hand, 26% of respondents (the highest score) would like a government formed by the DP and the LSAP. Among them, 19% would see this tandem "with other partners", but clearly not with the Greens.
For the first time since November 2020, the LSAP and the CSV would combine enough seats (32) to form a government of two. The return of red and black may become a possibility again - mathematically, that is - but is a "desired combination" for only 17% of respondents.
A coalition between the CSV and the DP is desired by 22% of voters, but it would require a third partner.
To the question "which parties should be represented in the next government?", voters cited LSAP in 48% of cases, followed by the DP (47%) and CSV (44%), with the Greens at (25%). For the Greens that is 3% more than in spring.
Xavier Bettel in pole position
So, the LSAP as a party has wind in its sails, but it's a strong headwind for Paulette Lenert, figurehead of the Socialists and Luxembourg's favourite political figure for nearly three years. She lost this dream place at the beginning of July to party colleague and foreign minister Jean Asselborn.
At the moment, Lenert would be the third-favourite person to become prime minister (getting 20% of the vote), just behind CSV's Luc Frieden (21%). Xavier Bettel (DP) remains on top with 34% of the vote, up from 30% in April.
How do you evaluate the government's work?
The poll also asked Luxembourg voters how they would evaluate the work of the government, as well as opposition parties. The government achieved much better ratings.
31% of voters said they are very satisfied with the work accomplished by the coalition, which only 8% are very satisfied with the opposition.
Within the government, it is the DP of the Prime Minister who received top marks. Between April and September, he took the lead, by a hair, over the LSAP. Similar to spring, the work of the Greens remains the least well rated.
The evaluation of the work carried out by the opposition parties reflects the results of the survey as a whole: CSV and the Pirates have made a leap forward, while the ADR and déi Lénk are stuck.
Of course these early polls are just a snapshot of voters at the moment, and do not define the final election.
For this survey, Ilres questioned 1,887 voters representative of the Luxembourg population questioned during the period from 7-16 August 2023. Details on the methodology and the questionnaire are available on Alia.lu.