New wave of infections in autumn/winter is 'likely', says Professor Paul Wilmes

Professor Paul Wilmes stated that Luxembourg can expect to see a new increase in daily infections during the upcoming autumn and winter seasons. However, the extent of this increase depends on "different variables", the researcher explained, including the vaccination rate, the type of variants circulating in Luxembourg, as well as the measures in place.

The fact that other countries, such as England or Denmark, are lifting restrictions cannot be used as an argument to do the same thing in the Grand Duchy, according to Professor Wilmes. Vaccinations are "very important" and in these countries, 87-89% of the adult population is vaccinated – a much higher vaccination rate compared to Luxembourg's 74%, the microbiologist pointed out. The reproduction rate is also significantly above 1 in Luxembourg, all of which means that lifting restrictions would be "pointless", Professor Wilmes stated.

The researcher acknowledged that the situation would be different without the Delta variant. The vaccine is less effective against the Delta variant, which also increases hospitalisations among the unvaccinated population. The coronavirus is "indeed rather special", according to Professor Wilmes, seeing as someone can still spread it, even if they do not show any symptoms at all. Professor Wilmes thinks it will probably be difficult to reach a herd immunity through vaccination. In theory, the virus could also mutate favourably, but there is not really a way to foresee whether that will happen, Professor Wilmes stated.

Regarding the debate around air filtration systems in schools, Professor Wilmes explained that there is "not much empirical data" about the devices and their use in classrooms available at the moment. It is thus "unclear" whether they would actually be useful, and that is not even considering the maintenance, noise, and the heat generation of these devices. On the other hand, it has been proven that ventilation is an effective method, according to the scientist.

The large-scale testing campaign, which will come to an end on 15 September, was "very effective" and has played a significant role in breaking the coronavirus waves and preventing the country's hospitals from being overwhelmed, Professor Wilmes said.

In the future, the authorities will probably have to put less weight on the overall number of infections and instead focus more on the number hospitalisations and the occupation rate in intensive care, the researcher concluded.