The Red Lions succumbed to a sixth consecutive defeat on Monday night in Belfast, ending the World Cup qualification campaign in Group A’s last place, with zero points.
These qualifiers marked the first time the Grand Duchy finished a competition without a single win or draw since 2005, when Liechtenstein infamously recorded home-and-away wins against Luxembourg.
Jeff Strasser’s tenure started with a worrying 3-1 loss against Northern Ireland at the Stade de Luxembourg, before a pair of defeats to Slovakia and Germany each brought us to the campaign’s conclusion on Monday. Performances have improved along the way, but ultimately left much to be desired in terms of results.
The zero-point tally is a steep decline from Luxembourg’s last qualification campaign under Luc Holtz, when the Red Lions amassed five wins and two draws to finish third in their 2022/23 group, ahead of Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Liechtenstein.
There have been many changes in the two years since, with Strasser bringing in a slightly different approach and introducing some new players to the setup – some planned and some less so. But what were the key themes contributing to the historic low of the past three months
Where are the goals?
Luxembourg's centre-forward situation has seen unprecedented obstacles over the last 12 months, resulting in a much-changed landscape and a need for Strasser to experiment as he tried to find a true goalscorer among his options.
From Holtz's last two strikers to represent the national team, neither are still around. Gerson Rodrigues was indefinitely banned from the national camp in August, four months after being handed an 18-month suspended prison sentence for domestic violence and bodily harm. 16-year-old Brian Madjo was the perceived Plan B for a short period, before rejecting a call-up in favour of his country of birth, England.
Among the other options, Dany Mota has never played for Luxembourg as he continues to hold out for a Portugal call-up. Talks have been ongoing to lure him to Mondercange next season, but they have not progressed soon enough to be included in this year's squad lists.
This left Strasser with two out-and-out strikers in Alessio Curci and Edvin Muratović, and a few makeshift options. The pick of the group was Aiman Dardari, who featured up top in the first September game, and scored Luxembourg's only competitive goal in 2025.
Danel Sinani also has considerable experience playing as a striker, but his strengths suit a deeper, playmaking role behind the front line. His impact this autumn was limited, except for the final two performances in the November international window.
As for Curci and Muratović, they failed to impose themselves on the opposition when given the chance, and missed several key opportunities in their limited time on the pitch. Their positioning and physical strength make them ideal picks given Strasser's playing style, but their finishing and technical abilities have often let the team down in the final third.
Another two wildcards were thrown into the mix in the last two matches, as Kenan Avdusinović and Adulai Djabi Embalò got their respective senior international debuts. Last year's BGL Ligue top scorer Avdusinović has been impressive with Progrès Niederkorn this season, and looks like a genuine option to consider for Luxembourg in years to come. Embalò had a less impressive showing against Germany, but at the age of 20, he has plenty of room for improvement and looks like a talent for the future.
The next challenge for Strasser is to find a source of goals. If Yvandro can shake off his long-standing fitness issues, maybe he can support Sinani up front. Other options include Mota's successful nationalisation or continued trust in Avdusinović and Dardari, both of whom are natural wingers by trade.
As for younger options, Strasser's hands are relatively tied. Jayson Videira, Leon Elshan, or Michael Omosanya have all been looked at by senior or youth Luxembourg managers in the past. Whoever the final solution is going to be will have a significant goalscoring burden on his shoulders, given the continuous inability to score among the current set of players.
Chanot replaced, Moris not yet
Maxime Chanot's retirement sent shockwaves through the Luxembourgish football community. Although in a position the country appeared well-stocked in, the former captain and LAFC defender was a staple of the national team for over a decade, never missing an important game when fit.
His farewell from Luxembourg followed that of Ralph Schon, a deputy goalkeeper behind Anthony Moris (who is 35 himself). Once Moris retires, two of the century's best players from the country will have left the starting line-up. Replacing the duo was going to be an arduous task for Holtz's successor.
The defensive situation now looks stable, nonetheless. Dirk Carlson has established himself alongside Seid Korać in the base of defence, after Enes Mahmutović slipped down the pecking order due to his limited involvement with the Netherlands’ NAC Breda. Supported by Laurent Jans and Florian Bohnert on the wings, the backline has been consistent throughout the campaign.
The goalkeeping position, however, is as unquestionable as ever. After Moris stayed away from the national camp in June, some suspected that a change of guard was on the horizon. Tiago Pereira Cardoso had an impressive run of performances in last season's Bundesliga, and was on the verge of seeking a loan for the 2025/26 season.
In the end, the loan never happened, Pereira Cardoso remains in youth football, and Moris settled in Saudi Arabia earlier than he expected, prompting a swift return to Luxembourg. He did not always convince everyone this year, and was undoubtedly at fault for Slovakia's late winner in September. But his standing in the team and lack of suitable alternatives will ensure his status remains unchanged as long as he is active.
Having a solid, reliable defensive pairing ahead of him will likely make it easier for Pereira Cardoso or anyone else to take the reins when the time comes. Korać and Carlson are both relatively young (24 and 27, respectively), with sufficient cover in depth (Mahmutović, Vahid Selimović, Marvin Martins, Kévin d’Anzico), making for an easier transition to the post-Chanot era.
The smooth transformation has not yet translated into wins, with red cards from both first-choice options also throwing a spanner in the works in the process, but the duo will likely look back at these qualifiers as the time they became Luxembourg regulars for years to come.
In need of a mental turning point
One of the most dangerous elements of starting a tenure with six defeats as a manager is getting the buy-in from the players. The dynamics of a dressing room are vastly different at the international level, but with Strasser still waiting for his first point after three months in the role, time is ticking for him to produce.
His possession-oriented, brave, positive approach has earned plaudits in the early stages of his stint so far, but individual lapses in concentration or unforced errors have stabbed the team in the back several times so far, leaving the players and fans disheartened after the final whistle.
Regardless of the limited time the manager has enjoyed with his squad, the time for experimentation is over: the next challenge awaiting Luxembourg is a crucial Nations League play-off against Malta in March. Lose that two-legged tie, and the Red Lions will fall back to the competition's bottom division for the first time since the inaugural edition in 2018/19.
Predicting what will happen in four months time is nearly impossible, with the number of variables at play. Strasser has not been dealt easy cards when it came to suspensions, injuries, and unavailability of some of the national team's core players in the past months. Any result against Malta will likely also hinge on whether he can count on his preferred starters or be forced to field some more inexperienced options.
However, it is difficult to look beyond March in case of a defeat. The World Cup qualifiers presented Luxembourg with three stronger teams on paper – every defeat was perfectly foreseeable, and to an extent, acceptable. While the points tally looks ugly at first and some of the losses felt particularly frustrating, it was never going to be a realistic dream to challenge for the top spots.
On the other hand, Malta are one of the teams Luxembourg should strive to beat at every opportunity. A similar showing to the 2025 qualifiers can potentially be disastrous. Any team playing in Division D of the Nations League loses a lot of their convincing power to entice dual-nationals such as Mota or Madjo in the future, too. Strasser's stock would be at an all-time low.
As a result of the perilous situation, expect no new faces in the March camp. Some of the veterans currently out of play (like Mica Pinto) might be called upon for a crucial pair of fixtures. For the coaching staff, this will be a turning point. An aggregate victory can restore some confidence in the players and the federation. A defeat could prove fatal for the current set of coaches.
After a relative era of stability during Holtz's record-breaking 15-year stint, Luxembourg will have to tread carefully. A transformation period was always expected from the successor, but the nature of the schedule leaves a very small margin for error. If Strasser proves to be the man for the job going forward, the Red Lions may well start having one eye on the 2028 European Championship already.
