One of the common concerns surrounding a transition to cleaner energy is the economic ramifications of moving away from the fossil fuel industry, which could lead to job losses. A new study published in December 2019 has demonstrated that nearly 30 million more “long-term, full-time” jobs would be created than those that would be lost in such a move.
Researchers created a ‘Green New Deal energy roadmap’ for 143 countries which represent 99.7% of the world’s CO2 emissions. The approach taken in the study was to find solutions to three problems: the earth’s temperature rapidly rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius, deaths from air pollution, and social instability caused by limited fossil fuel availability. The study claims that around 4 to 9 million people die every year as a result of air pollution. The three issues presented in the study are described as ‘three of the greatest problems facing humanity’.
The roadmap outlined by the researchers envisions all 143 countries moving to 100% clean wind, solar, and water power by 2050 at the latest, with a move to 80% of power generated by wind-water-solar (WWS) energy by 2030 at the latest. The technology enabling a transition from business-as-usual energy to WWS already exists, the study finds, demonstrating that those countries can perfectly correspond to demand from 2050 to 2052 with a 100% use of WWS supply and storage. The study groups the countries into regions to match their demand with the possible supply, putting Luxembourg into the category of Europe.
In terms of the cost of such a transition, the study does outline a hefty price tag of a present value capital cost of $73 trillion, but argues that the aggregate private cost of WWS is 61% lower than business-as-usual energy. Researchers considered the cost of transitioning in different ways, namely private cost per unit energy, aggregate private cost per year, social cost per unit energy, and the aggregate social cost per year. Using the WWS-to-BAU aggregate social cost ratio, the study estimates that the economic cost of transitioning to clean energy would lay at an average of 9%. Taken into consideration in the calculation are factors such as lower health and climate costs, less end-use energy consumption, and private costs per unit energy being slightly lower.
As a comparison the study calculates that fossil-fuel based energy would cost the world $17 trillion a year if we continue to remain reliant by 2050, as opposed to $6.8 trillion a year invested into renewable energy.
The study also outlines that the capital cost of a WWS transition is one that pays itself with electricity sales, but that government assistance is both helpful and necessary to reach the transition at a quicker pace, so as to match the urgency of the climate situation.
Ultimately, the study indicates that a transition to 100% WWS energy could decrease energy requirements and private and social costs, all the while leading to 28.6 million more long-term jobs than those lost by the move away from fossil fuels. It also outlines the benefits of how little land clean energy would use.
