The study, published on Thursday, shows no increase in all-cause deaths linked to mRNA Covid vaccines. This conclusion runs counter to theories that continue to circulate among groups critical of vaccination.
The French research consortium Epi-Phare, which brings together the French National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products (ANSM) and the national health insurance, stated in a press release that mRNA Covid vaccines do not lead to any long-term rise in the risk of death from all causes. The team published its findings in the journal JAMA Network Open.
Researchers examined data from nearly 30 million people in France between 2021 and 2025, covering the entire 18-59 age group. Of these, almost 23 million received at least one vaccine dose from mid-2021 onwards, when mass vaccination began in response to the global pandemic. The remaining six million were not vaccinated, despite measures such as the health pass.
The vast majority of the vaccines administered were mRNA-based, either Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech, the latter becoming the main vaccine used in France.
Among vaccinated individuals, 0.4% died within four years of receiving their first dose. Among those who were not vaccinated, the figure was 0.6%. After statistical adjustment, the study found that vaccinated people had a 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality compared with those who remained unvaccinated.
Mahmoud Zureik, the lead researcher, told AFP that the team could say with a high level of confidence that Covid vaccination does not increase the risk of death.
The safety and effectiveness of Covid vaccines have already been documented across numerous studies. Serious side effects remain rare and mainly involve cardiovascular issues such as myocarditis or pericarditis, none of which alter the overall benefit-risk balance for most age groups. In France, however, the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine was discouraged for young adults.
Despite this evidence, vaccine-sceptic groups have frequently promoted the false claim that mRNA vaccines caused a significant but hidden number of deaths that did not appear in official statistics, which previously focused on short-term mortality linked directly to Covid-19.
Zureik noted that while the short-term benefits and risks of Covid vaccines were well known, their longer-term impact had not previously been measured.
Although the researchers are confident that the vaccines did not increase mortality, they caution that this study alone cannot determine whether vaccines have reduced overall death rates. The difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups may reflect long-term benefits of vaccination, but it may also stem from demographic and social differences between the two populations.
