Luxembourg residents have lost faith in the United States as a reliable partner, a new poll shows, with 80% expressing distrust and a significant majority calling for increased defence spending amid shifting geopolitical realities.

A recent survey conducted by polling institute Ilres in collaboration with RTL has revealed a significant decline in trust in the United States among Luxembourg residents, alongside strong support for increased defence spending in the Grand Duchy.

The survey, conducted online via the Mypanel platform from 7 to 10 March, polled a representative sample of 500 eligible voters.

The results show a striking lack of confidence in the United States as a reliable partner. A staggering 80% of respondents stated that the US is not, or is no longer, a trustworthy ally. Only 8% expressed confidence in the US, while 12% remained undecided. Notably, distrust was particularly pronounced among respondents aged 55 and older.

This marks a significant shift from an October 2024 Eurobarometer poll, in which a third of respondents held a positive view of the US. Since then, geopolitical developments under the re-elected President Donald Trump have altered perceptions. The US has signalled plans to rebuild relations with Russia, offered only conditional support to Ukraine in exchange for mineral resources, and adopted a more detached stance toward the European Union.

The survey also revealed that 73% of respondents support Luxembourg increasing its defence spending, a figure nearly identical to recent polling in Germany. Only 19% opposed the idea, while 8% expressed no opinion.

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Debate over defence spending: 2% or 3% of GNI?

The Luxembourg government is currently engaged in internal discussions, as well as consultations with all political parties in the Chamber of Deputies, regarding the country's defence spending. Currently, defence expenditure stands at 1.32% of Gross National Income (GNI). Under pressure from NATO, both the current and previous governments have set a target of reaching 2% of GNI by 2030, which would require an additional €600 million in funding. However, Prime Minister Luc Frieden has suggested that Luxembourg may need to "mentally prepare" for a target of 3%, a statement made ahead of US Vice President JD Vance's speech in Munich on 14 February. The government plans to finalise its decision by the NATO summit scheduled for 24 to 26 June.

During a special summit last week, EU heads of state and government approved a European Commission proposal allowing countries to take on more debt if the funds are allocated to defence. However, Luxembourg's Minister of Finance, Gilles Roth, has expressed opposition to this approach. In an interview with our colleagues from RTL.lu last week, Roth argued against increasing the national debt, instead advocating for a reorientation of existing investments to meet defence spending targets.