Will the index fall as early as January?

In its latest publication, Statec notes that price increases have slackened but remain at a high level: in November, they reached 5.9 per cent over one year. You would have to go back to the 1980s to find such a high level of inflation.

Despite a 'substantial drop in petroleum product prices' in recent days, the index average calculated by Statec rose from 960.72 to 963.34 points in November (+2.62).

Thus, Statec indicates that the next indexation will be triggered when the value of 964.64 is reached, so 1.3 points before the next wage increase. This year, the monthly rise in consumer prices has been systematically higher than this gap.

Should this threshold of 964.64 be reached in December, the index will be triggered in January. If not, the threshold must be surpassed in January for an index to be triggered in February.

When contacted by telephone, Statec remained cautious in its statements: it is impossible to say today whether the index will be triggered in January, as several factors could still delay the index. For example, the price of petroleum products could continue to fall. And from 1 January onwards, the effect of the VAT cut on price trends will have to be assessed.

Besides wages, salaries and pensions, the minimum social benefits will also be increased by 2.5 per cent - on top of the bonus increase for pensions. Some benefits, such as the fees for doctors' procedures and services, are also affected. 
Regardless of whether the index falls in January or February, it will only be the first in a longer series. In addition to the one already scheduled for 1 April, a third indexation could take place towards the end of 2023. This could mean three wage increases in 2023.

In the meantime, you can estimate the effect of the index on your gross salary with our calculator: