The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC) announced on Wednesday that while monthly inflation saw a slight dip, annual inflation remains high, paving the way for two anticipated wage indexations – one in late 2026 and another in 2027.
Following the last indexation on 1 May 2025, the next automatic wage increase is now projected for the third quarter of 2026, with a subsequent one expected in the third quarter of 2027, according to the institute’s latest forecast.
A 0.2% decrease in the consumer price index between September and October was largely driven by falling costs for travel and fuel. Prices for package holidays dropped by 6.8%, while airfares fell 6.4%.
Despite this short-term relief, the broader inflationary trend “remained sustained” through the third quarter. STATEC now expects inflation to rise in the final two months of the year, leading to a revised annual forecast. The institute has raised its 2025 inflation projection to 2.2%, up from the 2.1% predicted in August. For 2026, the forecast is 1.5%, a slight increase from the previous 1.4%.
This anticipated slowdown in 2026 is attributed to an expected stabilisation of energy costs. STATEC projects a 15% decrease in electricity prices next year, alongside declines in gas (-7%) and Brent crude (-8%). These factors “should bring energy inflation down to -6.3% in 2026.”
However, food inflation is expected to move in the opposite direction, rising from 2.0% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026.
Looking further ahead, STATEC projects that, assuming government support measures are extended and the economic situation improves, inflation would approach the 2% target, with an annual rate of 1.9% forecast for 2027.
