The assessment was written last Friday and refers to the development over the past week. It was published on the website of Research Luxembourg on Monday.
In their report, the researchers refer to "exponential dynamics", in other words, the amount of time it takes for cases to double. Last week, this doubling time was 5.5 days – a week prior it had been 7 days. The effective reproduction rate has increased from 1.14 to 1.31.
Last week saw 157 new cases per day, compared to 91 new daily cases the week before. These are the highest infection numbers since the beginning of the epidemic. This trend could lead to an exponential growth which would be impossible to control. The researchers deliberately chose to stick with the subjunctive in their remarks: This could happen. It is not absolutely certain that the situation will develop this way.
In their projections, the researchers calculate that there could be a maximum of 370 new cases per day at the beginning of December. This is double the amount calculated in the projections one week prior.
The virus is increasingly present among the population again. The results of the large-scale testing efforts also support this conclusion. The prevalence rate has increased to around 2.5%.
While the numbers decreased over the summer months due to people spending more time outdoors and being less in contact with others, the current developments showed that social distancing and hygiene measures were not effective enough to keep the numbers down during the second wave. The researchers suggest that further measures to raise awareness and/or to limit physical contact may be necessary to avoid more serious cases and deaths.
The low number of people in intensive care as well as deaths during the second wave may be related to improved medical treatment or the fact that more young people are currently affected by the virus. However, the Covid-19 task force concludes that the further development of the crisis is very difficult to predict.
No further restrictions necessary yet, say Bettel and Lenert
