Forecasts recently published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC) anticipate a significant rise in fuel prices in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle-East.
In a publication on Wednesday 13 May, the statistics institute examined two possible scenarios. The less desirable one corresponds to a prolongation of the war.
Without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and given tensions on the stock markets, STATEC estimates that fuel prices could once again cross the €2 per litre threshold during the summer. The price of diesel would likely exceed €2 per litre by around July. The same applies to petrol, which would also cost more than €2.
Only an optimistic scenario – a "short conflict" in the Middle East – would allow prices to fall sustainably. In that case, prices could return to the €1.50 mark (the level seen at petrol stations before the conflict began in March) in the medium term, around January 2027.
As of Friday 15 May, prices at Luxembourg petrol stations were close to €2: €1.875 for a litre of diesel and €1.824 for unleaded 95.
On the subject of energy, STATEC expects gas and electricity prices to remain under control.
Earlier this week, STATEC presented worrying data during the government's preparatory talks for the June tripartite meetings. In the worst-case scenario, the country could face a recession, and three wage indexations could be triggered between now and September 2027 – a sign of high inflation and therefore a period of crisis for consumers.
In the short term, the next wage indexation is expected to be triggered in May and applied to June's wages.
