As we reported in an earlier article, every person with Covid-19 infects on average at least one further person in Luxembourg. According to first results from the large-scale Con-Vince study, the country still has a long way to go to achieve herd immunity. The actual number of infections (as opposed to confirmed cases) also remains unclear.
More than 1,800 people participated in the study. A first round of tests showed that 5 people had contracted the virus without displaying any of the common Covid-19 symptoms. The rate of asymptomatic patients thus lies at 0.3% for the time period between mid-Apil and early May. If this percentage is applied to the entire population, it could mean that five times more people carry the virus than official statistics indicate.
Another goal of the study is to detect the presence of antibodies in participants. 35 out of 1,820 people were found to have antibodies. According to the coordinator of the Con-Vince study, professor Rejko Krüger, the presence of antibodies is not necessarily synonymous with immunity. He explained that these findings indicate that around 2% of the population have been in contact with the virus. He added that it is more realistic to estimate this number at 5%. It is therefore clear that Luxembourg is still far away from herd immunity. Many participants have already been tested a second time - the results are being closely monitored.
Luxembourg is planning on rolling out testing for the entire population in the near future. People will be separated into occupational groups in order to gain a better understanding of virus transmission per sector. According to professor Ulf Nehrbass, up to 20,000 test could be carried out per day at the end of May.
With the lockdown measures gradually being lifted, Professor Paul Wilmes meanwhile urged the public to still follow the social distancing recommendations in order to avoid a second wave of infections. Researchers said that a second wave is likely if restaurants were also to reopen and if each person organised a weekly party with 10 guests.
Video in Luxembourgish and German
LINK: Informatiounen op science.lu
