Rampant inflation, partly linked to the invasion of Ukraine, rising interest rates and access to affordable housing are worrying Luxembourgers, who are seeing their purchasing power shrink. The government and the social partners have found a solution by postponing the index expected for July to April 2023, by introducing the energy tax credit and have promised to renegotiate together the other indexations that could occur between now and the end of 2023.
A solution to the economic crisis - after the Covid-19 health crisis - that is rather successful for the government coalition. This is shown by the new Sunday poll (Sonndesfro) carried out by TNS-Ilres for RTL and the newspaper Luxemburger Wort. In the event of a vote on Sunday, the government coalition (DP-LSAP-déi gréng) would recover from the “slap in the face” it suffered six months ago.
Xavier Bettel and his party, the Democratic Party (DP), can breathe a sigh of relief. Despite the plagiarism affair that could have tarnished the Prime Minister’s image and that fuelled the opposition’s fire, the DP managed to turn the tide in the space of six months (from 16.2% to 18.1%) to move back ahead of its coalition partner, the Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party (LSAP) (18%), which has been “surfing” on the good management of the Covid-19 wave by its figurehead, Paulette Lenert. The Minister of Health is still one of the most popular politicians among Luxembourgers.
As for actual seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the Sunday Poll indicates that the DP would win three for a total of 12. Meanwhile, the LSAP would keep its current 12 seats.
Curiously, the other coalition partner, The Green Party (Déi Gréng), is also doing well (+1.3%) after the Traversini Affair that led Minister for the Environment Carole Dieschbourg to resign. Compared to the 2018 elections, the party would lose one seat.
It should also be noted that the main opposition party, the Christian Social People’s Party (CSV), which has just unveiled a rebranding, regained a few points for the first time in a long time (+1.4%). With 23% of voting intentions, the CSV has climbed back up the slope over the last six months, but remains very far from the 28.9% obtained in the 2018 legislative elections. On the other hand, the CSV would – also for the first time in a long time – win a seat in a Sunday Poll. However, the hypothetical total of 16 seats would still represent the worst election result in the party’s history.
Still in opposition, the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (adr) is the big loser of this Sunday poll and fell from 11.3% to 7.6% of voting intentions. Is this a consequence of the election of Fred Keup as party leader in March or of the controversial remarks made by its MP Roy Reding in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis? In any case, the adr is the biggest loser of this Sunday Poll and would not gain any seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
As for the Pirate Party, it fell from 11.1% to 9.7% of voting intentions. This may come as a surprise, as the party’s leader, MP Sven Clement, keeps climbing in the polls and has become Luxembourg’s 5th most popular politician. However, despite this decrease, the Pirate Party would still be the big winner of a hypothetical election, as it would win a whopping four seats, according to the Sunday Poll.
Voting intention is slightly up for the Left Party (Déi Lénk). However, the party would retain its current two seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
Meanwhile, a newcomer is making a gentle but noticeable entry into the Grand Duchy’s political landscape: Fokus, the new party that formed around the former CSV Party President Frank Engel. Launched in mid-May, Fokus reaches almost 3% of voting intentions but would not win any seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
In the last Sunday poll in November, those surveyed slammed the government but also the opposition for their political work. Their ratings dropped significantly compared to June 2021.
Both the government and the opposition were unable to make up for this loss over the past six months, according to the latest Sunday poll.
Disavowed in November, the government coalition, which would not have been re-elected according to the results of the last poll (29 seats out of 60 in the Chamber of Deputies), can breathe easy. It once again has the confidence of Luxembourg’s residents. Thanks to the three additional seats that would boost the DP’s presence in parliament, the coalition would have a total of 32 seats. The LSAP would retain its current 12 seats while the Green Party would lose one.
The big loser would be the adr, which would lose three seats compared to the last Sunday Poll. Compared to the 2018 elections, the party would neither lose nor gain seats. Meanwhile, despite a slight upwards trend, the CSV would still lose 5 seats compared to the last elections. The Pirate Party would gain four seats (down one compared to the last Sunday Poll). The Left Party would keep its current two seats.
Methodology
For this survey, 1,868 voters representative of the Luxembourg population were questioned during the period from 24 May to 7 June 2022. Details on the methodology and the questionnaire are available on Alia.lu
