CSV leads, but Gambia coalition back on the table: poll

Just a few percentage points could shift the balance of power in Luxembourg's political landscape – that is the clear takeaway from the latest Sunday Poll, conducted by polling and market research institute ILRES on behalf of Luxemburger Wort and RTL.

Voters were also asked whether they believe a pension reform is necessary, adding another layer of insight to the current political mood.

CSV stays in the lead

The Christian Social People's Party (CSV) remains in the lead with 29.1% of voting intentions. That is 0.8% below their October 2023 result – when they returned to power after a decade in opposition – but still 0.2% better than the previous ILRES poll. While the CSV would remain by far the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies, the power balance is still influenced by the movements of smaller parties that potentially shift the political equation.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party (DP), the CSV's coalition partner, shows a modest gain compared to the October 2023 legislative elections, rising by 1.8%. Though slightly down from the gains recorded in the last Sunday Poll in October 2024 (+2.1%), this increase does not alter the party's standing in parliament: it would still hold onto its 14 seats.

Greens get a comeback

The upward trend observed in the last poll continues for The Greens (Déi Gréng), who would now secure 10.5% of the vote – 2.2% higher than their 2023 election result. This would translate to three additional parliamentary seats, making them the fourth largest party in parliament.

Combined with the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP), which remains fairly stable at 17.9% (down slightly from 18.2%), this resurgence could reopen the door to the former tripartite coalition.

The numbers add up: 14 seats for the DP, 11 for the LSAP, and 7 for the Greens could bring the 'Gambia' coalition – named as such due to the colours of each party – back into play. Nevertheless, the LSAP's polling surge seen in October 2024 (20% and two extra seats) has since subsided.

ADR losing momentum

The Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) is projected to lose a seat, polling at 9.3% – close to its 2023 result of 9.6%, but a noticeable drop from the October 2024 Sunday Poll, where it had 10.7% and 6 seats. This represents a clear decline in influence.

Pirates afloat but far from past highs

The Pirate Party (Piratepartei) avoids complete collapse but remains well below its 2023 performance, now polling at 3.5% compared to 6.7%. After being wiped out in the last Sunday Poll, the Pirates are now projected to return to the Chamber with one seat – a modest improvement over October 2024.

The Left sees growth but no gains in seats

The Left (Déi Lénk) continues to grow in popularity (+1.2% compared to October 2023), but this does not translate into more parliamentary seats: the party would still hold just two.

Current coalition still holds majority

Despite potential shake-ups, the current CSV-DP coalition would retain a majority in the Chamber with 35 seats, according to the poll. Still, it is unclear whether Luxembourg's most popular politician – current Foreign Affairs Minister Xavier Bettel – would be content to remain in a junior role within the government, especially with former coalition partners now likely to extend a hand. The next moves are far from certain.

The survey, carried out between 8 and 24 April, gathered responses from 1,841 eligible voters via telephone and online. Of the 1,147 phone interviews, 394 were conducted via landlines and 758 via mobile numbers. A further 689 interviews were completed online.

Full methodology and details are available on the website of the independent media authority: Alia.lu.

Editor's note: The so-called "Sunday question", widely used in Germany and Austria in the context of opinion and electoral research, asks people which party they would vote for if an election were held on that day. Over time, it has become a staple method for gauging public political preferences, relied upon by both academic researchers and commercial polling institutes. In Luxembourg, this format is employed by ILRES through the recurring "Sonndesfro" survey, commissioned by the Luxemburger Wort and RTL.