Andrew Ferrone, a climatologist and head of the the weather service at the Administration of Technical Agricultural Services (ASTA), notes that the first week of July was worldwide the warmest week ever recorded.

Many parts of the world are experiencing high temperatures at the moment. Is there a connection to climate change or is this still within the range of "normal" exceptions?

Ferrone notes that June registered the highest global temperatures ever recorded, with Luxembourg experiencing its sixth warmest month since 1838. Adding to the alarming trend, the first week of July saw the warmest temperatures ever observed worldwide. According to Ferrone, these unprecedented conditions highlight the fact that "humanity is now in uncharted territory in terms of climate."

It is important to understand that climate change is typically observed over long periods, spanning at least 30 years, due to natural variability in meteorological phenomena, Ferrone explains. Recently, the World Meteorological Organization also announced the onset of the El Niño* phenomenon, which is anticipated to contribute to further global temperature increases.

*Editor's note: "El Niño" is a natural climate pattern characterised by warming of the Pacific Ocean, which impacts global weather conditions.

Can the high temperatures be explained by the El Niño phenomenon alone?

The head of the ASTA weather service says that while El Niño can partially explain the high temperatures, it alone cannot account for the extreme weather events occurring worldwide: "Human-induced climate change is also a significant factor."

Ferrone states that we will have to wait for a so-called "attribution study" to understand the true impact of El Niño in the absence of man-made climate change.

One such study revealed that the intense heat experienced in April in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and Algeria would have been highly improbable without the influence of man-made climate change on a significant scale.

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We had a record summer last year too, will every summer be like this from now on?

Summers worldwide, including those in Luxembourg, are consistently becoming hotter due to human activities driving climate change, according to Ferrone.

He points out that in Luxembourg specifically, summers from 1991 to 2020 were on average 1.1°C warmer than the period from 1961 to 1990.

Ferrone notes that this upward trend is expected to continue for the next three decades. After that, whether climate change continues or not depends on whether global greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced to zero.

It is crucial to note, however, that while long-term trends indicate rising temperatures, not every summer will necessarily break new records. Natural variability can still result in relatively cooler seasons.

Nevertheless, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that maximum temperatures are rising at a rate more than twice that of average temperatures. This trend is also evident in Luxembourg, according to Andrew Ferrone.