Could the elections bring about a new coalition?

The Politmonitor poll conducted by Ilres for RTL and Luxemburger Wort shows that with three months to go before the general elections, and well before all parties have revealed their election programmes, voters have a desire for change - to the benefit of the CSV.

Here is a breakdown of some of the shared opinions:

The Greens out of the next government?

In response to the question "Which parties should be in the next government?", voters' wishes seem to indicate the emergence of a potential LSAP-CSV-DP trio. The first two were cited in 48% of cases, with the DP at 46%. Popularity amongst these three parties is on the rise, while that of the Greens fell sharply between April and July (from 29% to 22%).

The Greens find themselves in a bit of an awkward situation. While 90% of the party is satisfied with its work in the government, only 2 out of 10 voters would like to see them in power over the next five years. Is this a sign that the coalition has come to "the end of its life", as Luc Frieden put it in April?

Current coalition remains in a positive place

Even if voters were to prefer a two-party coalition, this configuration would not guarantee a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Although unprecedented in many aspects, could a red-orange-blue coalition function and work well together? This is the paradox and dilemma of the situation.

Despite a desire for change, 68% of voters have a positive view of the outgoing government, while 29% share a negative opinion. More generally, voters think the current government has done a good job in the areas of access to healthcare, mobility, protection of purchasing power and safety. They are less satisfied with action on climate change, education and the fight against poverty and tax fairness.

Not to mention the housing crisis, the number one concern of Luxembourgers, for which no solution has yet been fully convincing. It's a difficult portfolio, and one occupied by Henri Kox from The Greens.

Internally, 81% of the LSAP, 90% of the Greens and 95% of the DP believe their parties have been doing good work. The CSV, meanwhile, seems to be truly bogged down: After 10 years in the opposition, only 53% of Christian Socialists believe their party has done a good job.

Now is not the time to get discouraged, Sam Tanson said at her party congress. Prime Minister Xavier Bettel recently reiterated once again that the "chemistry" with the LSAP and Greens was working well - but he is not closing the door on an agreement with the CSV either.

Small steps for the remaining opposition parties

The other opposition parties are far behind the leading quartet, a sign that 2023 could be played out between the "big" parties, when the others will have to fight to obtain a parliamentary group. In this game, the Pirate Pary are best placed: 16% of voters would like to see them join a governing coalition. This bodes well for Sven Clement, who is aiming to have at least five MPs in the House in October.

The ADR is stable (9%) but has just lost one of its heavyweights. Déi Lénk is at a similar level, while Fokus, the party founded by Marc Ruppert, still seems too young for a higher spot (4% of voters would like to see them in government).

Xavier Bettel, PM for five more years?

Xavier Bettel's backing seems as solid as ever: 32% of voters would like to see him extend his term as Prime Minister.

This figure is much higher than his rivals Luc Frieden (CSV, 23%) and the popular Paulette Lenert (LSAP, 22%). Sam Tanson (Greens) only has 4% voter support.

Speaking to German press agency DPA a few days ago, Bettel said: "I have the motivation and energy to continue to work and modernise the country. I've done the job, I've done what I thought was right. Now it's up to the public to decide whether I was right."

Methodology: Ilres surveyed 1,073 Luxembourgers over the age of 18. The interviews were conducted by telephone and online between 13 and 22 June.