If legislative elections were to be held this Sunday, the coalition government would lose ground to the CSV and the Pirate Party, while maintaining a 31-seat majority.
Things have changed in the space of six months. While the Luxembourg Socialist Workers Party (LSAP) were still in the lead in November 2022, the tide seems to have turned in the run-up to the legislative elections on 8 October 2023.
According to the latest political poll (Sonndesfro) conducted by Ilres on behalf of RTL and the newspaper 'Luxemburger Wort', voting intentions would be in favour of the Christian Social People's Party (CSV), if the elections were held in April.
+3.8% in six months: the CSV makes a strong comeback and improves its score to 27.1%.
Meanwhile, the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) and the Democratic Party (DP) both lose ground compared to the last poll in November, with the LSAP losing 2.8% and the DP losing 1.3%. As it stands, the CSV would gain two seats in the Chamber of Deputies compared to the last poll – but would still lose four compared to the last legislative elections in 2018.
Coalition would maintain majority
The latest results would not be enough to tip the balance in favour of the opposition in the Chamber of Deputies.
If the elections were held this Sunday, the government coalition would effectively retain its majority with 31 out of 60 available seats.
In terms of who voters want as prime minister, Xavier Bettel remains a solid leader, with 30% of respondents saying they would like him to continue in his current role.
In comparison, his challengers Paulette Lenert (LSAP) and Luc Frieden (CSV) are 7 and 10 points behind the incumbent Prime Minister, respectively.
A duo rather than a trio?
Interestingly, according to the Sonndesfro poll, only 9% of voters would like to see the current coalition reappointed. The respondents would prefer a DP-LSAP duo (24%) to the current trio (DP, LSAP, Green Party).
The Greens are also among the political parties whose work did not necessarily convince the participants in this survey (-0.4%). Only the Left Party (-0.7) and the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (adr) performed worse (-1.6%).
Nevertheless, the Green Party is slowly recovering from the drop in votes in November 2022, and would retain 8 seats in parliament as it stands.
When compared to the results of the 2018 legislative elections, everything seems to indicate that the current coalition could remain in place.
While both the DP (-1) and the Green Party (-1) would lose one seat, this would be offset by a solid score for the LSAP (+2). As for the opposition, the Pirate Party would gain influence (+4), which would compensate for the CSV's losses (-4).
Methodology
For the Sonndesfro – which only reflects the current mood and should not be regarded as an election forecast – Ilres interviewed 1,885 eligible voters over a period of just over two weeks. 1,300 interviews were conducted by telephone and 584 via the internet.
