Daily infections have jumped up in Luxembourg over the last week alone, averaging around 100 more cases per day than at the end of June.
A new report published by the Covid-19 taskforce warns that the increasingly transmissible Delta variant could see cases reach a daily average of more than 600 by September, according to modelling.
The variant is around 50% more transmissible than the Alpha variant first detected in the UK, which caused the January peak in the Grand Duchy.
Despite the vaccine rollout, infection clusters continue to grow in the Grand Duchy, with many hailing from so-called “super spreader” events, including nightlife and the National Day celebrations. New infections have tripled since 27 June.
The total number of active infections has significantly increased to 1226 cases now, compared to 351 cases last week.
The report indicated that increased social interactions had caused the upswing in new cases. Based on current social interactions, models for September show cases jumping up to 400 per day, and in a worst-case scenario, reaching an average daily threshold of 600 cases or more.
Modelling based on older estimates of social interactions, going back a week or so, indicate a peak of 160 cases per day.
The Covid-19 taskforce therefore recommends adhering to safety measures such as social distancing, complying with hygiene measures, and putting emphasis on contact tracing in order to break infection chains.
They warned the current infection clusters could trigger a significant rebound of the epidemic, as seen in the UK and Israel currently, despite 60% of the population being vaccinated.
Monitoring of the epidemic and data on the variants over the next weeks will be important.
