Which vaccines can Luxembourg expect, and when?

Editor's note: since publishing this estimate the Ministry of Health has released the planned schedule for vaccine dose allocations for the Grand Duchy. You can read the article here.

On Twitter, the French MEP Pascal Confin published the number of vaccine doses France will be getting from the different producers. It is possible to get an idea of Luxembourg's share of each vaccine based on this document.

The EU distributes the ordered doses according to strict quotas. France, for instance, receives 15% of orders, while Luxembourg gets 0.14%. This is calculated based on the proportion of each country's population in relation to the total population of all member states.

The list posted by Confin does not include the 300 million additional Biontech/Pfizer vaccines reserved recently by the EU, nor does it take into account that these can now be used for six, rather than five, doses each.

Vaccine numbers for France. / © Pascal Confin/Twitter

What does this mean for Luxembourg?

Using the numbers for France and converting them based on Luxembourg's share results in the estimates outlined below.
So far, only the BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been approved by the European Medications Agency (EMA).

Luxembourg first EU country to receive Moderna vaccine

The vaccines ordered can only be delivered if they receive approval from the EMA. The table shows the cumulative total to be delivered by the end of each month. Another 1.3 million doses should be delivered later in the year. Note that these are not official numbers from the Luxembourg Ministry of Health.

Earlier this month, Minister of Health Paulette Lenert estimated that around 1.1 million people could be vaccinated based on current orders from the EU. This broadly corresponds with RTL's estimate of the number of doses to be expected in 2021.

Estimated number of vaccine doses allocated to Luxembourg between December 2020 and June 2021, cumulative.

Total vaccine doses expected in Luxembourg, second half of 2021.

Population percentage that can be vaccinated with the ordered doses (blue) and approved vaccines (red).

Vaccine doses delivered to Luxembourg (as of 14 January 2021)

The estimates in the table above indicate minimum deliveries for each company by month. As the figures below indicate, companies can in practice deliver more doses upfront:

26 December 2020: 9700 doses from BioNTech/Pfizer

11 January 2021: 1200 doses from Moderna

11 January 2021: 4875 doses from BioNTech/Pfizer