According to the latest ARD tally, the CDU will win 28.9 percent of the seats. The Left Party also managed to make it into the Bundestag with 8.5 percent, while the FDP with 4.9 percent and the BSW with 4.7 percent. According to the ARD’s forecast, the FDP and BSW would therefore not be represented in the Bundestag because they need 5 percent.
If this forecast is accurate, it would allow CDU and SPD to have a majority together. The CDU can currently count on 211 seats and the SPD on 116. Together, that would be 327. 316 seats are needed to have a majority. The AfD would get 142 seats, the Greens 98 and the Left 62.
AfD lead candidate Alice Weidel stated that her party is open to coalition negotiations with the CDU.
According to a survey by the “infratest dimap” institute commissioned by ARD, CDU probably gained voters primarily through its handling of the issue of migration. The survey shows that 92 percent of voters who first voted for the CDU in these elections think it’s good that Friedrich Merz speaks out against irregular migration, and 85 percent trust him to ensure that fewer people immigrate to Germany.
Amid rising dissatisfaction with Chancellor Scholz’s coalition, early polls indicated the SPD might secure just 14 percent of the vote. Currently, Chancellor Scholz’s chances of remaining in his post are anything but good.
As of 2pm on Sunday, about 52 percent of eligible German voters have cast their ballots, a significant increase compared to 36.5 percent in 2021 and 41 percent in 2017. This surge partly reflects the shift away from mail-in voting that was common during the pandemic.
Research institutes and public broadcasters are set to release their first election forecast at 6 p.m., these will be based on surveys taken on election day. More detailed projections are to follow as additional constituency results come in.
Meanwhile, left-wing groups have called for evening demonstrations which has led to the setup of barricades around polling stations, intensifying the atmosphere on this historic day. These are the first Bundestag elections to be held under the new electoral law.
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