Ouattara favourite as fourth Ivory Coast term looms

Incumbent Alassane Ouattara is the overwhelming favourite to secure a fourth term as Ivory Coast holds presidential polls Saturday, a task facilitated by the absence of several key opposition figures.

Ouattara, 83, has wielded power in the world's top cocoa producer since 2011, when the country began reasserting itself as a west African economic powerhouse.

"We want a knockout blow," chorus his allies as they target a decisive win in the first round and avoid a run-off.

The road back to the presidential palace seems clear with former president rival Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam both barred from standing.

Volunteers prepare to distribute voter cards at an Abidjan polling station as Ouattara chases a fourth term / © AFP

The constitutional council did greenlight four opposition candidates but eliminated Gbagbo and Thiam on the grounds they have been removed from the electoral roll.

Thiam fell afoul of nationality-related legal issues stemming from him acquiring French citizenship and Gbagbo was excluded for a criminal conviction.

Their enforced absence only adds to a tense political climate.

Authorities have banned their rallies and meetings citing a risk to public safety.

- Banned rallies -

None of the four candidates who will seek to unseat Ouattara represents an established party / © AFP

Some 44,000 security forces deployed nationwide have systematically quashed blockades or marches in several localities -- especially former opposition strongholds in the south and west.

Three people died -- two protesters and a gendarme -- in the south and centre-west, while more than 700 people were arrested, some for acts of "terrorism," according to state prosecutor Oumar Braman Kone.

Around 30 three-year prison sentences for disturbing public order were also handed down.

The authorities acknowledged a tightening of the pre-poll screws by saying they did not want to permit "chaos" to arise nor see a repeat of the unrest of 2020, when 85 people died during the election.

"The state is taking preventive security measures to avoid electoral violence. But the best way to have peaceful polls is to organise inclusive elections," said political analyst Geoffroy Kouao.

- Four candidates -

None of the four candidates who will seek to unseat Ouattara represents an established party nor do they have the logistical means at their disposal on anything like the scale of the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP).

Former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon, 60, is out to helm a "new generation" of Ivorian politicians as the agribusinessman looks to rally voices from his former stable the Democratic Party.

Former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon hopes he can pull off a win for a 'new generation' of politicians / © AFP

Former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, 76, is for her part looking to garner support from supporters of her former husband.

But the left goes into the contest fending off divisions given the presence of civil engineer and independent Pan-African, Ahoua Don Mello, who does not conceal his Russian sympathies.

Then there is centrist Henriette Lagou, a moderate who also stood in 2015 -- taking less than one percent.

Ouattara came to power in the throes of a bloody crisis following the 2010-2011 contest which would cost more than 3,000 lives in clashes between his supporters and those of Gbagbo, who ruled for a decade.

Turnout will be a crucial issue Saturday with some nine million voters called to cast their ballots.

In the north, where most people are of the Malinke ethnicity strongly backing Ouattara, his RHDP will be hoping to rack up scores of 90 percent and more on the back of a strong participation rate.

A poll ban on former president Laurent Gbagbo and also former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has angered some voters who say the candidates who remain are not for them / © AFP/File

Southern and western regions, home to ethnic groups historically pro-PDCI or pro-Gbagbo, could avoid the polls owing to a lack of voting instructions from their leaders.

"Nothing will make me vote, my candidate isn't on the list and none of them represents my ideas," complained Emile Kouadio, in Yopougon, an Abidjan district which remains overwhelmingly pro-Gbagbo.

"The absence of the two main (banned) opponents will demobilise a significant portion of the electorate, and so far we haven't seen a significant shift behind a candidate," said William Assanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

The government is highlighting a record showing several years of strong economic growth in a country with rich mineral resources, which became an oil and gas producer in the 2020s, as well as a security situation largely under control, despite jihadist threats on its borders with Burkina Faso and Mali.

Critics deplore the fact that the undisputed growth has only benefited a small portion of the population and has accompanied a spiralling cost of living.

Meanwhile, the hoped for post 2010-2011 national reconciliation is still not wholly achieved.