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Luxembourg-based tech entrepreneurs, Alex Pospekhov and Alexey Shirobokov, are the masterminds behind Mission Space, a space weather forecasting service that will help protect lives and property by providing data on space weather trends, changes and risks.
Space weather forecasting is crucial in our technology-driven world as it raises awareness and enables preparation to mitigate risks and prevent disruptions in essential services.
Speaking from their office at House of Startups on Rue du Laboratoire in Luxembourg City, the company’s founders met with RTL Today to talk about their space weather intelligence system that allows for a more accurate prediction of changes in the space environment.
So, what is space weather and why should the average person care about space weather forecasting? Space weather is everything connected to the sun's activity and describes the variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth, explains Mr Shirobokov.
“We should care because space weather has impacts on the ground that can potentially be felt by us all. When solar storms occur they can wreak havoc because of their ability to disrupt and damage critical technological infrastructure and systems that modern society relies on.
"Everyday life can be thrown into chaos due to disruption to electricity supplies as well as rail and air travel being interrupted due to signalling systems being damaged. It can have significant impacts on daily life.”
As recently as May 2024 a powerful geomagnetic storm occurred with many in Luxembourg witnessing the beautiful, dancing northern lights painted across the sky, Mr Pospekhov points out.
Accompanying the solar storm was a solar flare, its width spanning an impressive 16 times the diameter of Earth. Solar flares are thrown out from the sun’s surface towards the earth all the time — with this usually appearing as the aforementioned northern lights or auroria borialis. Normally innocuous, however sometimes the flares are so big that they interfere with the Earth’s magnetic field and consequently its infrastructure, he adds.
Such was the severity of the recent solar event, a 'G4' geomagnetic storm watch was issued by the US Space Weather Prediction Center. This is the second highest on a five-step scale that goes from G1 to G5 and it was the first such watch in 19 years, the last being in January 2005.
On the ground the impact was felt first hand as well as unexpectedly. In the US, the agriculture sector lost an estimated $500 million when the solar storm caused farmers' GPS-guided systems to break down during the height of planting season, the entrepreneurs highlight.
Some reports claimed field machinery was going around in circles due to the loss of the GPS signal.
A sure wake-up call to our vulnerability in an increasingly digitalised world as the ever-growing sophistication of technology means we can be more and more susceptible to disruption.
Mr Shirobokov cites an extreme example of the everyday consequences of solar storms which took place in 1989, when the entire state of Quebec experienced a blackout.
A powerful solar flare hit the Earth's magnetic field and caused an outage leaving six million people without electricity. The region was at a standstill with not even traffic lights working.
“It had a disastrous effect on infrastructure and human life,” he adds.
Closer to Luxembourg, a powerful solar storm in 2003 destroyed the electricity grid in Malmö in Sweden impacting around 50,000 people.
Driverless cars
Today, our reliance on sophisticated technology is compelling industries to be in sync with space weather and space weather forecasts to protect their businesses and essential services from power or signal failure.
“The more you rely on really sensitive electronic systems, the more sensitive it is to solar effects,” Mr Pospekhov explains.
This means that everyday activities such as driving could become a hazard. “With previous solar flares there wasn't so much sophisticated technology on the ground. Everyday life can be affected by blackouts caused by solar storms - your GPS doesn't work, there is no electricity, no traffic lights. Just imagine the chaos without electricity. We rely more and more on autonomous systems and space weather really impacts on these systems.
"You have driverless cars which rely on GPS connectivity signal. A precision under one metre and if there is a disruption it can relocate the car in the system 100 metres in any side. It means the error in the system increases [the possibility of] danger.
“Robots for example will act unpredictably, such as home help or robot lawn mowers. It could pose a huge risk if you lose the connection and lose control. Everything related to robotic systems, autonomous everything, will become more and more commonplace within the next decade. Like computer fraud, 10 years ago it wasn't widespread but today it is — as we are more digitalised.”
In what is a “complex scientific domain,” space weather forecasting currently relies on “legacy technology” which doesn't always provide enough real-time data, he adds.
“There is a need for more accurate, real-time space weather forecasting to protect human activities and life. Legacy technology currently provides space weather forecasting which has a 50/ 50 accuracy. Accurate space weather forecasts enable industries and nations to take necessary measures to protect infrastructure.”
Enter Mission Space, which specialises in the development and launching of second-generation satellites for monitoring space weather. Next February it will launch the first of 24 satellites into space to continuously monitor space weather to extrapolate precise and real time data, providing 1,000 times more data points that will feed into space weather forecasts.
This will facilitate both space and ground-based businesses in measuring and mitigating the potential impacts of space storms.
Describing it as a more “fine-tuned model” in space forecasting, this setup will enable the company to take simultaneous measurements at multiple locations, creating standardised data sets and uninterrupted data flow for further analysis.
“More data means more information and pre-warnings of solar storms that may be destructive to industries on the ground. For example, you are an airline you want to know that tomorrow there will be some difficulties with the communications system.”
Robust space industry
The Mission Space founders say they are operating in a very favourable business environment in Luxembourg. The Grand Duchy’s robust space industry has around 100 companies related to the space sector, they estimate.
The entrepreneurs cite the governmental support that exists for space business as the reason for the burgeoning eco system, praising the Luxembourg Space Agency as being “quite sophisticated, quite developed for the size of the country.”
“As a place for business in Europe, Luxembourg is the best because the government gives you a lot of support and attention."
Building future leadership in this developing area is key for the businessmen. Since last autumn they have partnered with the University of Luxembourg. The objective is to develop and deepen space expertise within the university and eventually attract this expertise to come work with them.
“There is an expertise there but there is still room for expanding this. We believe the space weather niche will be growing and there will be need for people with advanced sciences in this area. We believe that Luxembourg could potentially be a hub for space weather.”
