The budget presented to the council by the administration builds on the central premise that no further lockdown occurs. However, it does not envision a total disappearance of the virus in the foreseeable future.
If a renewed lockdown were to be initiated in the Grand Duchy or one of the neighbouring countries, Bausch believes we may enter a downward spiral that could be difficult to escape: "Of course it is impossible to say for certain, we are not fortune-tellers. The arrival of a vaccine remains a great unknown in all our calculations. We may very well stay in this unfavourable position until 2022."
The CNFP president further conveyed that data from Statec will be used to gain better oversight over the situation. It is currently estimated that 2020 will be marked by a €4.4 billion GDP deficit. The years 2021 to 2023 are all expected to have similar deficits exceeding the €1 billion mark.
Bausch expressed concerns over future investments: "Large-scale projects, such as the military plane for instance, will have to be spread over multiple years, now that 2020 has been brought to its limits due to the unexpected spending." Nevertheless, Bausch was also optimistic about some government programmes, as the partial-unemployment-plan had for example turned out to be less costly than anticipated.
The next evaluation by the National Council of Public Finance will be presented in Spring. [comment]
