At the June summit, the government and the main labour and employer organisations agreed on a series of financial aid packages and subsidies to limit inflation. Tom Haas, director of the national statistics institute STATEC, said on Monday that the initial shock has turned out to be less temporary than expected.
Haas said the risk of another wage indexation, originally forecast for 2026, has shifted to 2027. The summer measures had a strong, if temporary, effect.
"We have demonstrated that the price measures taken in summer had a strong impact and helped", Haas told reporters, "but they only provided relief during a temporary crisis. If it turns out that this is a more permanent, enduring crisis, potentially stretching into 2027 or even 2028, particularly for gas and other energy markets as some forecasts now indicate, we will need to consider the consequences of such a price scenario."
STATEC is recalculating its projections and expects to publish a new inflation forecast within two weeks. It will also give a clearer idea of when the next automatic wage indexation (index tranche) might be triggered.
Haas said the summer measures have so far reduced the likelihood of another indexation this year. "At that time, we predicted the next tranche might be delayed by up to two quarters, ensuring the government’s twelve-month interval target would be met", he said. "However, given recent developments, there is once again a risk that this timetable may not hold. We will know more in two weeks."
