Households in Luxembourg could see their energy spending fall significantly in 2026, with STATEC projecting a nearly 7% decrease in prices due to lower oil costs and government intervention.

The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC) presented its medium-term economic projections on Tuesday, forecasting a potential boost to household purchasing power in 2026 driven by a significant drop in energy prices.

The institute predicts energy prices will fall by "nearly 7%" next year. This decline is attributed to an "expected drop in oil prices" combined with government interventions on electricity costs. STATEC notes this projected decrease persists even with the scheduled annual €5 per tonne increase in the CO2 tax.

The government's measures include a €150 million package, announced in late July, to help cover electricity transport and distribution network costs. The stated goal of this intervention is to stabilise or even reduce the network fees consumers pay in 2026.

Due to the substantial weight of energy costs in the inflation basket, this price drop is expected to pull the average inflation rate down to 1.4% in 2026. STATEC still estimates that the next wage indexation will not occur until the third quarter of that year.