Chad's MNJTF withdrawal threat risks regional security collapse

Chad's recent announcement that it may withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) raises urgent questions about the future of security in Central Africa.

This regional coalition – formed to counter Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgent violence – includes Chad, Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon. Chad's interim President, Mahamat Idriss Deby, cited issues with coordination and lack of support as reasons for considering the exit.

Without Chad's highly trained forces, the MNJTF's capacity to effectively counter violent extremism in the Lake Chad Basin could be severely compromised, underscoring the urgent need to reassess and bolster multinational African security efforts.

Chad's essential role in the MNJTF 

The MNJTF was established in 2015 as a joint initiative among Lake Chad Basin countries to combat insurgent violence that has plagued the region since 2009. Boko Haram, originating in Nigeria, expanded its operations across borders, exploiting the porous boundaries between Chad,Niger, Cameroon, and Nigeria.

The coalition, initially backed by the African Union and funded with international assistance, was seen as a way to pool resources and unify strategies in addressing the insurgency.

Chad's military is among the most capable in Central Africa, particularly in counter terrorism. In2020, following a devastating Boko Haram attack that killed 98 Chadian soldiers on the Bohoma Peninsula, then-President Idriss Déby (father of the current president) launched an intense counteroffensive, deploying Chadian troops across the region, including into Nigerian and Nigerien territories.

This operation, dubbed "Operation Wrath of Bohoma," severely impacted Boko Haram's operations, highlighting Chad's pivotal role within the MNJTF. Chad's forces are known for their readiness and effectiveness in asymmetric warfare, and their exit would likely leave the MNJTF with a significant operational gap.

Chronic challenges facing the MNJTF 

Despite its notable efforts, the MNJTF has struggled with logistical and coordination issues from its inception. Funding remains a persistent challenge.

While the African Union initially endorsed the MNJTF, financial contributions from AU member states have been sporadic, often relying instead on external aid. The European Union, for instance, committed €50 million in 2016-2017 to support the MNJTF's counter terrorism mission.

However, reports from watchdog organizations like Human Rights Watch have criticized the delivery and implementation of this support, pointing to delays and resource mismanagement that have hampered MNJTF's efficacy.

Coordination issues also plague the coalition. Although the MNJTF is a unified force on paper, its constituent forces face difficulties in communication, intelligence sharing, and joint planning. The MNJTF's ability to function as a cohesive unit has often been hindered by internal rivalries and inconsistent support among member states.

Chad's potential exit could exacerbate these challenges,stripping the coalition of its most seasoned force and potentially leading to disorganization that insurgent groups could exploit.

Potential consequences of Chad's withdrawal 

The Lake Chad Basin is one of Africa's most volatile regions, with Boko Haram and ISWAP continuing to conduct cross-border raids and establish control over swathes of territory. Neighbouring countries like Nigeria, already heavily impacted by Boko Haram's insurgency, would likely bear the brunt of Chad's withdrawal.

Since Boko Haram began its campaign in 2009, more than 350,000 people have been killed directly or indirectly as a result of the conflict, according to a2021 report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Chad's departure would mean that Nigeria, Cameroon, and Niger would need to shoulder a greater share of the coalition's operational burden.

However, each of these countries is grappling with its own security challenges. Niger, for example, saw at least 1,500 people killed in 2023 due to insurgent violence, per data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

Cameroon and Nigeria also continue to face displacement crises, with millions of civilians forced to flee their homes, exacerbating poverty and fuelling a humanitarian crisis that insurgent groups often exploit for recruitment and control.

Without Chad's support, insurgents may feel emboldened to launch larger attacks and expand their influence. For instance, Boko Haram and ISWAP have adapted to MNJTF offensives by decentralizing their operations, splintering into smaller cells, and establishing control over difficult-to-monitor territories.

A diminished MNJTF would risk emboldening these groups, further destabilizing the Lake Chad Basin and potentially spilling over into other West and Central African regions.

A critical need for international support 

Chad's dissatisfaction with the MNJTF also reflects a broader frustration with international support for regional security efforts in Africa. Western and European powers initially supported African-led counter-terrorism initiatives, but that support has been inconsistent.

The United States, France, and the European Union offered equipment, training, and financial resources to the MNJTF, yet these efforts have not been sustained at levels needed to match the growing threats in the region.

It is thus undeniable that more consistent and comprehensive support is necessary, including enhanced intelligence-sharing and logistical backing.

Additionally, a more holistic approach to addressing insurgency in the Lake Chad region is essential. Beyond military aid, development projects addressing poverty, lack of education, and unemployment-factors that leave local populations vulnerable to radicalization-are crucial for long-term stability.

Youth unemployment rates in the Lake Chad Basin are estimated to exceed 30%in many areas, and the lack of economic opportunity has fuelled recruitment by insurgent groups.Sustainable socio-economic investment is critical to countering extremist narratives and reducing recruitment to violent groups.

The path forward 

Chad's threat to withdraw from the MNJTF underscores the need for urgent reform and stronger international partnerships in multinational African security efforts.

To ensure the MNJTF's effectiveness, stakeholders must address coordination and resource allocation issues, possibly through a dedicated African Union security fund that can stabilize financing and ensure that critical resources are consistently available.

International allies, especially the EU, the United States, and France, should also reaffirm their commitment to supporting African-led security initiatives, with attention to consistent funding and logistical aid.

The MNJTF's success depends on a comprehensive approach that includes not only military force but also socio-economic strategies addressing the root causes of extremism. Chad's exit from the MNJTF could destabilize the Lake Chad region and intensify a crisis that already threatens millions of people.

For the coalition to fulfil its mandate of regional security, substantial reforms and an unwavering commitment from both African and international partners are essential.
Vijay Pathak is a PhD candidate at the University of Oxford. He is a graduate of Yale University where he was a Brady-Johnson scholar in Grand Strategy and a PDLI Fellow. He is a recipient of the 2024 NATO Youth Award and writes on EU foreign policy and global affairs. Vijay is from Capellen, Luxembourg.

Feel free to share your thoughts with us! If you'd like to submit your own letter, send it to contenttoday@rtl.lu.