Erdogan's strategic tightrope: how Türkiye's balancing act strains EU relations

Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to carefully navigate the delicate balance between his nation's NATO commitments and its growing ties with Russia. Despite being a key ally to Ukraine in its war with Russia, Türkiye's deepening relationship with Moscow is creating tensions within NATO and the European Union.

Erdogan’s dual strategy – supporting Ukraine militarily while fostering economic ties with Russia – has boosted Türkiye’s geopolitical importance but now complicates its relations with the EU, raising questions about its alignment with European values and interests.

In recent years, Türkiye has solidified its role as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict, facilitating deals like the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported despite the war. However, Türkiye has also deepened its economic ties with Russia, particularly in energy.

In 2023, bilateral trade between Türkiye and Russia reached $70 billion, and Türkiye's dependency on Russian natural gas remains critical, with 45% of its gas imported from Russia. The construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant further entwines the two nations.

While Türkiye's role as a diplomatic mediator is critical, its refusal to join EU sanctions against Russia has created an awkward rift with European leaders. Türkiye has maintained open trade routes with Russia and benefitted from increased Russian capital flows, raising concerns in Brussels about Ankara’s economic alignment.

This approach allows Erdogan to pursue his vision of "strategic autonomy," where Türkiye remains independent from any single geopolitical bloc. However, the strategy is becoming increasingly difficult for the EU to accept, as it diverges from the collective European effort to isolate Russia economically.

The EU now faces a dilemma. Türkiye's geopolitical importance, particularly as a NATO member, is undeniable. Yet, Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian governance and his reluctance to sever ties with Russia are making the possibility of Turkish EU accession more remote than ever.

The European Parliament's latest progress report on Türkiye highlights the deepening concerns over democratic backsliding, further straining relations between Ankara and Brussels. Türkiye's entanglement with Russia presents not just an economic problem for the EU, but also a security one.

Türkiye controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, key maritime routes for NATO and European defence strategies. Erdogan's ability to influence the flow of goods and military assets through these straits complicates NATO’s position, as Türkiye has shown a willingness to use its strategic geography as leverage.

Additionally, Ankara delayed Finland and Sweden's NATO accession, revealing its readiness to challenge the alliance’s consensus when it suits its national interests. The EU now must consider whether it should continue to accommodate Erdogan's strategic autonomy or take a firmer stance on Türkiye's ambiguous relationship with Moscow.

The EU's current approach – balancing criticism with engagement – has had limited success in influencing Erdogan's behaviour. A stronger response could involve economic leverage, such as renegotiating the terms of the EU-Türkiye Customs Union, providing Ankara with access to expanded markets in exchange for clearer alignment with EU policies.

However, such a move requires careful calibration to avoid pushing Türkiye even closer to Russia.

Türkiye's approach is not without benefits for the EU, particularly as a stabilizing force in the Black Sea region. Yet, the longer Ankara straddles both sides of the Russia-West divide, the more unsustainable this arrangement becomes. The EU must decide how to manage a member of NATO whose economic and diplomatic ties to Russia continue to deepen, and whose political trajectory appears to be moving further from European democratic norms.

Ultimately, Erdogan's careful balancing act between Russia and the West has enhanced Türkiye's international stature, but it has come at the cost of increased tensions with the European Union. The EU's challenge is to engage Türkiye in a way that preserves its strategic importance to the alliance while pressing Erdogan to make clearer choices about his nation’s alliances.

If not, Türkiye's alignment with European values and security objectives could grow more tenuous, leading to further strains on both NATO and the EU as they contend with an unpredictable partner at a time of immense global instability.

Vijay Pathak is a PhD candidate at the University of Oxford. He is a graduate of Yale University where he was a Brady-Johnson scholar in Grand Strategy and a PDLI Fellow. He is a recipient of the 2024 NATO Youth Award and writes on EU foreign policy and global affairs. Vijay is from Capellen, Luxembourg.
 
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