Polls closed Thursday in a parliamentary by-election in northern England seen as a key test of the ruling Labour party’s ability to fend off growing support for the hard right and leftists, as the country’s traditional two-party system splinters.
Defeat for the government in the vote would add to the woes facing unpopular UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who endures frequent mutterings about how much longer he can stay in office.
Labour has dominated the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton for decades and won almost 51 percent of the vote there at the July 2024 general election that swept Starmer to power.
But less than two years later, it is locked in a three-way fight for the seat with the anti-immigration Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, and the Greens, led by left-winger Zack Polanski.
The lead-up to polling day has been fraught, with party leaders hurling insults at each other and activists accusing each other of misinformation and breaking campaign laws, highlighting the high stakes.
“I voted Reform because of immigration -- I’m sick of it,” retired nurse Elaine Simpson told AFP outside a polling station in Denton, a majority white working-class part of the constituency.
The 78-year-old noted she no longer trusted Britain’s establishment parties, adding: “You wouldn’t be able to print what I think of Keir Starmer.”
In nearby Levenshulme, home to more student and Muslim voters, the Greens appeared ascendant.
“The Green Party is offering hope to the wider society, marginalised people, and I think they’re the choice for working people,” writer Matt Alton, 31, told AFP after casting his ballot.
“Of people that I know around my age, I don’t know anyone who’s said that they’re not voting Green.”
But local Labour councillor Basat Sheikh was confident his party could retain the seat.
“Our message has been clear from day one that it is about unity and not division,” the 45-year-old said, as pouring rain did little to encourage voter turnout, typically lacklustre at such contests.
Labour won the seat by more than 13,000 votes in 2024.
The battle suggests British people appear increasingly willing to look towards insurgent parties to tackle long-standing, hot-button issues like the high cost of living and irregular immigration at the next general election, expected in 2029.
“It illustrates how the two main parties are losing so much support at the minute,” University of Manchester politics lecturer Louise Thompson told AFP, referring to Labour and the main opposition Conservatives.
“It could be a real sign that they are in a lot of danger.”
The vote was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne on health grounds.
Matt Goodwin, a 44-year-old political scientist, is bidding to become Reform’s ninth MP in the UK’s 650-seat parliament.
Standing for the Greens is Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber and trainee plasterer, who is hoping her party’s pro-Palestinian stance will appeal to the constituency’s 28 percent Muslim population.
Local councillor Angeliki Stogia was chosen as Labour’s candidate after the party’s ruling body blocked the candidacy of popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.
Burnham’s bid to try to become an MP was widely seen as a precursor for a potential leadership challenge from the left against Starmer, who hails from the party’s centre right.
Starmer faced down calls to resign earlier this month amid a row over his appointment of Peter Mandelson, an associate of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.
The prime minister has also taken flak for countless policy reversals and polls suggest he is the most unpopular British prime minister since surveys began.
A win would help quieten the noise around his future before he faces a bigger moment of peril in May with elections in Scotland, Wales and London that pollsters predict will be painful for Labour.
The poll result was not expected until the early hours of Friday.
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