Redrawing the map, security guarantees, and natural resources discussed Friday

On Monday evening, the US President is receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with several leaders from NATO countries in Europe. They are to be informed of what exactly was discussed between the Russian and US Presidents on Friday.

At the press conference following the summit, little information was revealed. On Monday morning, Donald Trump put significant pressure on Ukraine: Ukraine would definitively lose Crimea and would not join NATO. The US President said that Zelensky could end the war immediately if he wanted to. Meanwhile, there is still no ceasefire, and Russia continues its military operations against Ukraine as if nothing had happened.

The US and Russia allegedly agreed on a few things on Friday, according to Vladimir Putin. As for Ukraine’s future, several complex questions arise, including: Does Ukraine have to cede additional territories to Russia besides Crimea? And if so, which ones? It would be highly complex, as the front line is estimated to be about 1,000 kilometres long.

If a peace agreement were reached, what guarantees would there be to ensure that Russia doesn’t attack Ukraine again? And, as Putin insists, what guarantees would there be that NATO never attacks Russia?

Redrawing the map

To circle back to the first issue, Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which has been under occupation since 2014. As mentioned, Trump clearly ruled out the possibility of Ukraine getting the peninsula back.

Then there are the Donbas regions in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk. Pro-Russian separatists gained a foothold there after the Maidan Revolution in 2014, with Moscow’s support. Since the invasion in February 2022, Luhansk has been fully occupied. Approximately two-thirds of Donetsk, particularly the southern part down to the Black Sea, is under Russian control.

Likewise, large parts of the southeastern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, south of the Dnipro River, are also under Russian occupation.

For Ukraine, giving up those regions would be a very bitter pill to swallow – not only because the country fought long and hard for them and people were displaced, but also for economic reasons and the fear that Russia would not stop there.

Trump, in contrast, hopes that Moscow could be satisfied this way and that no more lives would be lost due to the war.

Wäert d'Ukrain weider Territoiren u Russland mussen ofginn? Dës Kaart weist, wéi eng Territoiren aktuell ënner russescher Kontroll stinn. / © AFP/Guillermo RIVAS PACHECO, Jean-Michel CORNU

Security guarantees

If Ukraine were to give up territories then the question of security guarantees arises. On this point, Putin at least made a small opening: he said he agrees with Trump’s opinion that Ukraine should indeed receive such guarantees. However, the US President formally ruled out Ukrainian NATO membership on Monday morning.

Ukraine, in any case, destroyed or returned all of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia, leaving only Trump’s months-old idea on the table: that of “rare earths”, valuable natural resources. After the clash between Trump and Zelensky in the White House at the end of February, the US pushed through a deal with Ukraine. Trump seems to envision it as follows: if US companies exploit Ukraine’s mineral resources, Russia wouldn’t dare target those sites.

Now it gets even more interesting: according to the British newspaper The Telegraph, Trump is reportedly even willing to offer Russia access to resources from Alaska in exchange for peace in Ukraine.

NATO expansion, Kievan Rus, and “Denazification”

There are plenty of reasons to remain skeptical after the Trump-Putin summit, starting with Putin’s worldview. While in Anchorage, he again spoke about the “fundamental causes” of the war in Ukraine. These include NATO’s expansion eastward, but not only that. The Russian president also believes Ukraine and Russia are brothers, and he frequently repeats – also in a book – that Kievan Rus is the origin of Russia.

Immediately after the 2022 invasion, Putin also talked about the “denazification” of Ukraine. Zelensky said he was confident that Ukraine would be defended and its security guaranteed, and that people would one day be grateful to Trump. The Ukrainian president and the EU leaders seem to have come to understand that the best way to deal with Trump is to flatter him and give lots of compliments.

The results of the meeting in Washington will only be published later on Monday night. This article is subject to updates.