If Luxembourgers went to the polls this Sunday, the CSV–DP governing coalition would no longer have a majority. Three parties would have to reach an agreement to form a new government.
The latest 'Sunday Poll' confirms declining confidence in the Christian Social People's Party (CSV), a recovery for The Greens, and an unprecedented surge for the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR).
"Voters have chosen a different policy", Luc Frieden concluded on the evening of 8 October 2023, referring to his election campaign slogan. But three years after the parliamentary elections and the CSV's successful comeback, the different policy offered so far no longer convinces voters.
The erosion of support for Frieden's government, which quickly became apparent in successive polls, is clearly continuing. If voters cast their ballots this Sunday in Luxembourg, the CSV would once again be the biggest loser.
With two years to go before the next national elections, this should be cause for concern for Frieden and the CSV.
The CSV's sharp decline, which began a year ago and was confirmed by the crushing blow that sent the party to its lowest polling level in the spring, has admittedly stopped. In early May, the CSV had fallen to 21.8% of voting intentions, compared with 29.8% in the 2023 parliamentary elections.
Six months later, this new Sunday Poll, conducted by Ilres for RTL and Wort, shows the CSV recovering slightly to 22.8%.
That result would allow it to retain its position as the country's largest party by total votes, but would represent a severe punishment for the party chaired by Prime Minister Luc Frieden if voters went to the polls this Sunday. The CSV would lose seven percentage points – an enormous drop in Luxembourg elections – and, as projected in the spring, six seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
That means losing between one and two seats in each of the four electoral districts. From its current 21 MPs out of 60, the CSV would fall to 15 – the same number as the Democratic Party (DP), its coalition partner.
The party of current Foreign Minister and former Prime Minister Xavier Bettel would confirm its strong spring showing in the same poll. With 21.5% of voting intentions, the Democratic Party had drawn level with the CSV.
That would still be the case this autumn (21.7%). But three years after the parliamentary elections, the DP would fare much better than its partner if voting took place on Sunday, gaining 2.5 percentage points and one additional seat in parliament.
If voters went to the polls this Sunday, the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) would lose ground this autumn: down 2.7 percentage points compared with May.
This is the largest decline for any party over six months.
Its leading figure, MP and former Deputy Prime Minister Paulette Lenert, who was still the party's most popular politician in July, has left politics. Nevertheless, compared with three years ago, the LSAP would gain one parliamentary seat, bringing its total to 12 MPs.
The big winner would unquestionably be the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR). Luxembourg's most right-wing party, chaired by Alexandra Schoos, would make an unprecedented breakthrough if voting took place this Sunday.
After passing the symbolic 10% threshold in the spring – 11.4%, to be precise – the ADR continues to rise in the polls. The ADR has gained another 1.4 percentage points in voting intentions this early autumn.
Compared with the 2023 elections, it would jump 3.2 percentage points, significantly strengthening its position as the country's fourth-largest party behind the CSV, DP, and LSAP. The ADR would also hold eight seats in the Chamber of Deputies, exceeding its previous record.
The ADR won 11.3% of the vote and seven parliamentary seats in the 1999 general election.
Close behind would be The Greens. As in the spring, the environmentalist party, which lost five seats in the 2023 parliamentary elections, would make further modest gains (+0.5 percentage points), recovering to 10% of the vote. Like the ADR, it would record the largest increase in parliamentary representation since October 2023 (three additional seats), with seven MPs instead of its current four.
Although this poll is slightly more favourable to the Pirate Party than the spring poll (+0.2 percentage points), they are still unable to reverse their decline. Three years after the parliamentary elections, the Pirates would receive only 4% of voting intentions this Sunday and lose two parliamentary seats, leaving them with just one.
The Left (Déi Lénk), meanwhile, would secure 5.5% of the vote and retain its two seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
This new poll reshapes the balance of political forces currently represented in the Chamber of Deputies. It reaches the same conclusion as the spring poll: if voting took place this Sunday, the CSV–DP partnership would no longer have a majority.
Mathematically, the CSV's 15 seats and the DP's 15 would fall short of the parliamentary majority of 31 out of 60 seats. Together, they currently hold a comfortable majority of 35 seats.
With the LSAP projected to win just 12 seats, it could not serve as the sole alternative coalition partner, as it so often did in the past.
A three-party coalition would become inevitable to form a governing majority. Although the 'Gambia' arrangement – DP, LSAP, and The Greens – which governed from 2013 to 2023 would provide a very comfortable majority of 37 seats, numerous political combinations would be possible on paper, including two involving the ADR.
This Sunday Poll also gave RTL and Wort an opportunity to ask voters seven questions directly related to current affairs. We publish the first here.
The other six will follow on Wednesday, 14 October at 5 pm, when the second instalment of our Sunday Poll coverage is published.
Right-wing populist parties are on the rise, as illustrated by France's RN (National Rally), currently well ahead in presidential election polls, and Germany's AfD (Alternative for Germany).
We asked voters whether they thought a similar development could occur in Luxembourg.
58% of voters believe it could. A majority of voters across all parties agree, only 35% disagree.
ADR voters are much more convinced than average that things could develop in this direction: 81% think so. Only voters for Déi Konservativ are more emphatic, with 89% expecting such a development.
Among LSAP voters, the figure is 59%, among DP voters 57%, and among CSV voters 54%.
Among 25–45-year-olds, 65% think it could happen, whereas half of those aged 65 and over do not.
Voters in the north of the country are the most convinced that such a development could occur (64%), while those in the south are the least convinced (54%).
This poll was conducted between 22 September and 2 October 2026 by telephone and online among 1,829 people of voting age. There were 1,149 telephone interviews and 680 online interviews.
Full details are available on the website of Luxembourg's Independent Audiovisual Authority, Alia.lu.
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